The Groundhog Said 6 More Weeks of Winter… What Do Weather Experts Say?

After a colder-than-expected January, milder weather is expected for much of the country as February continues, weather experts say. 

This comes after the annual tradition of Groundhog Day on Sunday, Feb. 2 when Puxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, predicting an additional six weeks of winter for the 2024-2025 winter season. 

Paul Pastelok, the lead long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, said that a long winter isn’t expected for some regions of the United States. In fact, he said “the transition to springlike weather and warmer air is happening earlier than the historical average from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast.”

While the verdict is still out on whether or not an extended winter will hit the Midwestern and Plains states, Pastelok said there are four winter weather systems expected to impact the country from the Northwest into the Plains beginning on Feb. 5 through next week. “It’s going to be busy for most of February,” Pastelok said.

Additionally, Pastelok said that colder weather will continue for many of the top corn growing states, “not to the extent of January, but it’s cold enough.” 

The weather forecast from north to south across the country is seeing a huge contrast that usually isn’t present in weather patterns until the month of March, Pastelok said. Around the Gulf Coast temperatures have been around 80℉, he said.

Drought conditions expected to expand in Southwest

Along with the warmer temperatures in the Gulf, comes drier conditions in the south and southwestern states, Pastelok said. 

There’s currently only one weather system that could develop and bring some snow to southern Colorado, Pastelok said, but southwestern Texas is expected to remain dry.

“The Southwest has missed out on most of the rain and storms so far this winter,” Pastelok said. As a result, drought is expanding in that region of the country.

The likelihood of the Southwest experiencing an early spring is rising, Pastelok said, as the soil continues to get drier and drier.

Springlike weather transition sluggish in other states

While the Southwest region is expecting an early start to spring–contrary to Puxsutawney Phil’s long winter predictions–Pastelok said that “the transition to springlike weather will be sluggish from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and the northern Plains.”

The weather patterns are expected to go “back-and-forth between mild stretches and blasts of colder and wintry weather over the next few weeks,” Pastelok said. 

Snow, ice, and rain in forecast for Midwest and Plains

Snow, ice, and precipitation are all expected to impact regions that haven’t experienced much snow this winter over the coming weeks, Pastelok said. 

Storms that are coming in the next few weeks are anticipated to develop good soil moisture from Missouri to the Tennessee Valley, Pastelok said. Rain and ice are both expected to make an appearance in that region, he said.

For the rest of the Midwest, Pastelok said that snow is expected to fall around Chicago, Kansas City, and in and around other major cities in the region. 

South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are also forecasted to receive some snow in the coming week in areas that have seen very little snow this winter, Pastelok said. 

“There’s a pretty good cold shot in the Western U.S. that will get out into the Plains states,” Pastelok said, “including Iowa.”

Temperatures in some areas, such as the Dakotas, are expected to be between 10 to 20℉ below the average for this time of year. 

The cold weather that’s expected across the Midwest and Plains states could impact sensitive livestock, Pastelok said. Additionally, he said, while winter wheat is dormant, for western Nebraska growers that haven’t received much snow, their crop could be impacted. “We won’t know until it opens up in April to understand how much damage there is.”