Soybeans Turnaround and Close Higher

December corn ended the day up 7¾¢.

January soybeans closed up 2¢.

December wheat contracts were mixed at the close. CBOT wheat was up less than a penny. KC wheat was down 2¾¢. Minneapolis wheat was down 5¢.

“Futures were quite volatile today which was not unexpected following the U.S. Presidential Election results,” said Karl Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting. “Former President Trump won re-election by a wider-than-expected margin. While Trump has a history of supporting business, he also has a history of placing trade tariffs, and this generated a mixed reaction to his re-election by supporting the equities and pressuring commodities. This trade softened as the session progressed and much of the early losses in commodities were erased while the outside markets remained firm.

“We also started to see more positioning in the market ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates and Friday’s WASDE [World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates] report. Ahead of these, trade is focused on South American weather which has been improving, and Chinese demand that is starting to be questioned. We now need to add a hurricane into the news mix, with Hurricane Rafael expected to become a major storm before hitting western Cuba and moving into the Gulf of Mexico later today.”

December live cattle closed up 63¢. January feeder cattle were up $1.68. December lean hogs closed up $1.

December crude oil is currently down 7¢.

December S&P 500 futures and Dow futures are currently up 147 points and 1,533 points, respectively.

Published: 3:09 p.m. CT

Soybeans in the Red This Morning: 9:29 a.m. CT

December corn is up 2¾¢ this morning.

January soybeans are down 3¾¢.

December wheat contracts are also down. CBOT wheat is down 1¾¢. KC wheat is down 4½¢. Minneapolis wheat is down 5¼¢.

It’s the morning after Election Day and the Associated Press has called the Presidential race for former President Donald Trump. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said in the overnight trade soybeans were down over fear the outcome of the election will lead to a trade war with China.

“But history tells us that we have been moving in that direction for years regardless of Trump’s election,” he said. “Looking back at the previous trade war, most observers will point out that U.S. sales plummeted during that time. But that had more to do with suppressed demand due to how African Swine Fever had decimated China’s hog herd.

“China’s ‘unofficial’ policy has been to buy as many soybeans as it can from South America, and then to buy the rest of what it needs from the United States. You can point to geopolitical tensions as a motivation for that, but the fact is that currency exchange rates generally make South American soybeans cheaper than U.S. supplies, when those supplies are available in South America. That was true prior to the trade war, it was true in 2019 and 2020, and it has been true since then, with sales declining as Brazil continues to expand production, increasing the availability of soybeans. This will continue to be the case. China will still pay what it needs to get the soybeans it needs — tariff war or not.”

December live cattle are up 78¢. January feeder cattle are up $1.75. December lean hogs are up 18¢.

December crude oil is down 49¢.

The U.S. Dollar Index December contract is up to 105.

December S&P 500 futures are up 100 points. December Dow futures are up 1,261 points.

Suderman noted Wall Street expects a “pro-business agenda” from a Trump White House.

Published: 9:29 a.m. CT