Precipitation on Horizon for Midwest; Possible Snowy Second-Half of Winter

After the recent Arctic blast, the Midwest will see above-average temperatures and chances for precipitation going into the start of February. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected in the Southwest United States and move through the Midwest followed by more seasonal, cold temperatures and a chance for a Midwest snowstorm. 

David Tolleris, meteorologist and owner of WxRisk.com, said a shift in the weather pattern is coming. Recently, the East Coast and Deep South has seen unprecedented amounts of snow and cold temperatures. According to a report by AccuWeather, New Orleans and Pensacola have seen more snow this winter than cities such as Des Moines and New York City. 

However, Tolleris believes Midwest precipitation is on the way. 

“Overall, the next two or three weeks look pretty good in terms of precipitation for most of the Plains and the Midwest, which is positive news to get some moisture in the ground,” he said. 

After a dry fall, western parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska are still in severe to extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Tolleris said these states have a chance for precipitation. He also attributes the upcoming shift in weather patterns to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a transition out of cold cycles and into warmer ones. 

“In the month of February when that happens, the eastern United States turns quite warm, the western U.S. turns cold and stormy, and the Plains are in the battleground, which means a lot of precipitation,” Tolleris said. 

The Climate Prediction Center also shows above-average chances for precipitation throughout most of the United States in both of its 6-to-10 and 8-to-14-day outlooks. Tolleris said that if he had to pick a date for a potential Midwest snow storm, it would be around Feb. 11 or 12. According to a report by Reuters, lack of snow cover paired with frigid temperatures from the Arctic blast potentially killed up to 15% of the winter wheat crop in major growing states. Tolleris said winter wheat is in the clear from extreme cold for the next few weeks. 

Tolleris said data attributes the predicted weather pattern shift to a strengthening La Niña. The National Weather Service said in a previous report that La Niña conditions are present but weak. The implications of a strengthening La Niña means a colder and wetter second half of winter for the Midwest and Plains, and a warmer second half of winter for the East Coast and southeastern United States  

“Usually when you go into late January, February, and March, the whole La Niña or El Niño event system has stabilized, and it begins to decline in March and April,” Tolleris said. “But in this case, it actually looks like it’s intensifying as you go into February.”