Ohio Valley Crops in Good Shape Despite Missing Out on Additional Rain

After solid June rainfall, Corn Belt crop conditions for corn and soybeans are sitting in a better spot than in 2024.

As of the latest Crop Progress Report on July 7, 95% of the nation’s corn crop was listed in fair, good, or excellent condition — a sign of optimal growing conditions to this point in summer, said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range forecaster. 

Ohio Valley Outlook

Even in areas where rains haven’t been as prevalent, such as sections of Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, and into the Ohio Valley, Pastelok has a positive outlook. Ohio sits drought free as of the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report July 3, while 23% of Indiana faces abnormally dry or worse conditions. Nearly 44% of Illinois is in drought conditions, and 24.9% of Michigan is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

“They’re not as good as other states right now, basically because of the rainfall,” Pastelok said. “They needed that because we went through that hot spell, which caused a lot of evaporation, so you needed to replace that. Those are the areas that didn’t replace it. It’s been other areas that have done very well. 

“Things look really good right now, and going forward, there’s still more opportunities for rain occasionally in these areas to get the moisture they need during this critical time period in the summer.”

What’s Next in July

Temperatures are likely to continue to remain high across the Ohio Valley, Pastelok said, but he added that AccuWeather forecasts project the heat will be “occasional, not consistent.” 

Pastolek said the area could see a lot of ups and downs in temperature over the next two weeks, which he said “can provide moisture that they’ve been missing,” as soon as the weekend. With rain likely in the western part of the Corn Belt, near Iowa and Missouri late in the week, Pastelok said he sees good rainfall reaching the Ohio Valley in the following days. 

According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Ohio Valley is projected to have more rainfall than average throughout July. 

“I like the pattern we’re looking at, I think it is very good,” Pastelok said. “For the crops right now, I don’t see anything that’s going to stress things out from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley at this point.”

August Concerns Low, for Now

Pastelok said the heaviest projected moisture in August is for the eastern portion of the Ohio Valley and into Tennessee. The CPC’s long-term seasonal maps show a slightly greater-than-average chance of high precipitation from July through September in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. This would take the eastern Corn Belt into harvest season with ample precipitation to combat potential high heat. 

Corn and soybeans are set up well, Pastelok said. He added that storms could pop up and cause crop damage with hail or high winds, but said, “I don’t think it’s exceptionally high risk at this point on the severe weather [front].”