Mexico poised to become top destination for U.S. ag exports

U.S. food and agricultural exports to Mexico have surged 65 percent over the past four years, making it the fastest growing export market for a host of American agricultural commodities and products. Mexico’s growth as a destination for U.S. exports has been spurred by the country’s booming post COVID-19 economy and a rapidly growing manufacturing sector.

The economic upswing has allowed Mexican consumers to expand their traditional diet, and U.S. food and agricultural producers are helping meet the country’s growing demand for meat, poultry, dairy, processed foods and feed grains. In 2024, U.S. food and ag exports to Mexico climbed to $31.4 billion, slightly below Canada, the top market at $32.4 billion.

According to a new research brief from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, Mexico will likely surpass Canada to claim the top spot for the first time in 2025 despite some emerging headwinds.

“The rise of Mexico as a customer has been a huge success story for U.S. agriculture,” said Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “But a few risk factors are developing that could slow the pace of additional growth. Mexico’s economy has been slowing, and the unusually strong peso over the last couple of years has weakened by about 15% since early 2024. Mexican consumers’ purchasing power will be more challenged in 2025.”

Since 2020, Mexico’s share of all U.S. agricultural exports rose from 11.2 percent to 16.4 percent. On a volume basis, corn, pork, dairy products, soybeans and poultry products make up the top five U.S. commodities purchased by Mexico, according to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data.

At $13.9 billion, grain, feed, oilseeds and related products comprise the largest category of U.S. ag exports to Mexico. Strong recent growth is largely attributable to rising feed demand for the country’s expanding animal protein industry and severe drought, which is limiting domestic crop yields and grazing conditions. Given the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, Mexico will almost certainly overtake China as the largest export market for U.S. grain, feed and oilseeds in 2025.

U.S. dairy exports to Mexico continue to follow a pattern of rapid growth. Total U.S. dairy export value to Mexico has risen by 76 percent since 2020, driven mostly by Mexico’s steadily increasing appetite for cheese. Mexico is the largest export destination for U.S. dairy products and almost twice the size of the second largest, China. And while Mexico’s domestic meat and poultry production continues to climb, consumption is expanding so quickly that imports from the U.S. are increasing as well.

Mexico is also a sizeable importer of a wide array of U.S. packaged food and related processed agricultural products. Consumer-packaged goods, bakery and confectionery items represent most of those products. Other categories include fresh and processed fruit and vegetables, sweeteners and tree nuts.

Over the past decade, cross border trade of food and agricultural products between the U.S. and Mexico has doubled to reach $80 billion. While free trade agreements have fallen out of favor in recent years, Fox said it’s hard to see the interconnectedness in food systems between U.S. and Mexico as anything but a “win-win” for both countries. “Consumers on both sides of the border benefit from a wider array of food choices at lower prices than they would otherwise.”