Today USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
2022/2023 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
The WASDE report pegged the U.S. 2022/2023 corn ending stocks at 1.417 billion bushels, above the April estimate of 1.342 and the trade’s estimate of 1.366 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 215 million bushels, above the April estimate of 210 and the trade’s expectation of 212 million bushels.
USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 598 million bushels, reflecting no change from April’s estimate, and below the trade’s expectation of 602 million bushels.
2023/2024 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
The WASDE report pegged the U.S. 2023/2024 corn ending stocks at 2.222 billion bushels, above the trade’s estimate of 2.094 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 335 million bushels, above the trade’s expectation of 293 million bushels.
USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 556 million bushels, below the trade’s expectation of 602 million bushels.
2022/2023 WORLD ENDING STOCKS
USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 297.4 million metric tons (mmt) vs. the trade’s expectation of 295.2 mmt. Last month, USDA’s estimate was 295.4 mmt.
For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 101 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 99 mmt. USDA’s April estimate was 100.3 mmt.
For wheat, USDA pegged world ending stocks at 266.3 mmt. This is above April’s estimate and the trade’s expectation of 265.1 mmt.
2023/2024 WORLD ENDING STOCKS
USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks for 2023/2024 at 312.9 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 307.5 mmt.
For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 122.5 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 108.1 mmt.
For wheat, USDA pegged world ending stocks at 264.3 mmt. This is above the trade’s expectation of 259.7 mmt.
2022/2023 ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL CROP PRODUCTION
For corn, Argentina’s production is pegged at 37 mmt, above the trade’s expectation of 34.9 mmt and in line with last month’s estimate.
Brazil’s corn production is estimated at 130 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 126 mmt and last month’s estimate of 125 mmt.
For soybeans, Argentina is estimated to produce 27 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 24.4 mmt and April’s estimate of 27 mmt.
Brazil’s soybean production is pegged at 155 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 154.9 mmt and last month’s estimate of 154 mmt.
More from USDA
“The 2023/2024 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks,” says USDA in the report. “The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10% from last year on increases to both area and yield…With beginning stocks up slightly, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.7 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/2018…With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2023/2024 ending stocks are up 805 million bushels from last year and if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2016/2017.”
Concerning soybeans, USDA says “The 2023/2024 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/2023. The soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels, up 5% from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields. With lower beginning stocks partly offsetting increased production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.75 billion bushels, up 4% from 2022/2023…U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, down 40 million from 2022/2023 with strong competition from increasing South American production and limited gains in global import demand. U.S. ending stocks for 2023/2024 are projected at 335 million bushels, up 120 million from the revised 2022/2023 forecast.”
On wheat, USDA says “The 2023/2024 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, increased domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2022/2023. U.S. wheat supplies are forecast lower than last year with smaller beginning stocks and only slightly larger production.”
Trade Reaction
Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, says today’s report was bearish for U.S. corn and soybeans, largely due to the expectation of robust production that demand can’t keep up with.
“The real surprise in the report was the large projection for soybean ending stocks for the 2023/2024 marketing year,” he says. “Wheat numbers across the board were pretty positive, and for corn it’s long-term negative if projections for yield and acreage hold up.”
David Brock, principal at Brock Associates, says “The bottom line is there’s nothing bullish to hang your hat on for corn and bean producers, with new crop beans taking the biggest fundamental hit. Wheat was the bullish surprise farmers wanted to see.”
