Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, says when it comes to selling grain, timing is key.
Speaking twice at the 2023 Commodity Classic earlier this month, Kluis encouraged farmers in attendance to pay attention to seasonal selling patterns to maximize profits.
“If you remember one thing from the meeting today, never sell in August,” he says.
In fact, he says to avoid sales from August through October.
His rule of thumb: sell corn when you are planting corn.
In reviewing price trends in 2022, he says cash and new crop sales made in May through June were near the highs for the year.
He says corn hit a high in May and a low in July while soybeans found a high in June and a harvest low in October.
“It’s been very much a seasonal market the last two years,” he says.
Looking Ahead
Kluis also shared his insights on where the market is going in 2023. The factors he is watching this year include:
- The Russian war in Ukraine
- The final crop size in South America
- Spring/summer weather in the U.S. and total global grain production
- The transition from La Niña to El Niño
- The impact of a possible global recession
- Trade relations with China
Three-step Plan
In his Saturday session, Kluis also went over his three-step marketing plan for attendees.
- Work with a crop insurance agent to buy the right revenue protection plan.
- Get 50% to 80% of insured bushels hedged ahead on any spring or summer weather-scare rally.
- Get the new-crop bushels that are not protected with hedges protected with put options, if the puts allow you to lock in a profit.
Learn more about Kluis’ three-step plan here.
“You’re running a farm business, so you have to make sure you manage the risk,” he says. “Learn how to market, create a plan, and execute that plan.”
