Make the Most of Marketing Challenges in 2025

What Happened in the Market

What will the new marketing year bring? This is the million-dollar question. There is a lot of speculation and much to consider like:

1. South American weather
2. China demand
3. New U.S. president and tariffs
4. Ongoing wars

Taking all these into consideration, let’s look back on this year’s price action. 

March corn started the new year at $5.12 on Jan. 1. It sold off and then rallied back to the spring high of $5.08 in May, only to sell off from there to the harvest low of $4.03 in August. In the last few weeks, corn has managed to rally back to around $4.50. 

March soybeans started the year near $12.40, sold off, and rallied back to $12.33 in May. They put in a low of $9.89 in early August and — due to a dry fall —  rallied back to $11.00 at the end of September. They then sold off to $9.47 and rallied back to near $10 after Christmas. 

Beans continue to be volatile due to South America weather, China demand, and concerns about tariffs from the incoming administration. Many fear countries front-loaded their sales and may taper off or even cancel sales over concerns for tariffs in the new year. 

From a Marketing Perspective

With recent strong corn demand and ethanol usage, the target for March corn could be back to the $4.65 to $4.70 range. There may be a need to add some weather premium for dryness potential in Argentina. 

This rally should be a selling opportunity for producers after the first of the year. Generally, markets sell off into February before staging a spring rally. Consider what you have left to sell and the cost to store. Make decisive sales in the next few weeks. You may want to wait until early spring to start making new crop 2025 sales in corn.

South America is on pace with an enormous crop and most market watchers look for bean prices to head to $9 this winter. There is great risk in holding old crop beans in the new year. Producers may want to be more aggressive making old and new crop bean sales near $10. 

Prepare Yourself 

There will be a lot to think about this winter in terms of deciding crop acres with expectations for a colossal South American soybean crop; farmers might lean toward planting more corn acres. Depending on corn demand, we may need those added acres. 

Tariffs from the new administration could be concerning, as well as changes in weather and wars in Russia, Ukraine, and Israel. 

The Jan. 10 USDA crop report could lower corn ending stocks due to increased demand and raise bean stocks due to lower demand. Near the end of January there will be a report on final production numbers. These reports could set the tone this winter.

The key takeaway from all this? There are many challenges ahead this year so stick to your marketing plan and turn to a reliable source when you need help. 

Learn More

If you have questions, you can reach Cathy at cekstrand@s-pelmwood.com or visit www.TotalFarmMarketing.com for more information. 

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