Ideal Planting Conditions, But Dry Pattern Looms

The beginning of May will bring conditions conducive to continued planting in the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. The Climate Prediction Center indicates above-average chances for below-normal precipitation in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. The CPC also indicates above-average chances for above-normal temperatures throughout the entire Midwest. 

“There’s very little rain in the central-upper Plains and western Corn Belt,” said David Tolleris, owner and meteorologist for WxRisk.com. “For the next seven days, the total rainfall is like 1- to 3-inches for 80% coverage of the eastern Corn Belt.” 

Tolleris said that the majority of that rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt can be attributed to a system moving through on Friday and into Saturday in Indiana and Ohio. However, the next week will be a generally dry pattern for many Midwestern states. 

“In the next seven days, western Kansas is dry, all of Nebraska is dry, most of Iowa is dry, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Dakotas are all dry,” Tolleris said. 

Drought in Nebraska

While recent storms just made April the wettest month on record in Oklahoma City, Tolleris said that Nebraska has been getting “ripped off” with rain. According to the latest USDA Crop Progress Report, 64% of topsoil moisture in Nebraska was rated short/very short. 

“Nebraska is one area that’s been getting ripped off this year — a lot of Nebraska has had under an inch of rain or maybe 2 inches,” Tolleris said. 

Dry conditions have pushed planting progress along in Nebraska, with a 13-percentage-point increase in corn planted and 11-percentage-point increase in soybeans planted, according to the most recent Crop Progress Report. However, Tolleris said many weather models are indicating a continued dry pattern throughout May, which presents a risk of worsening drought and a fire risk in the High Plains. A little more than 90 percent of Nebraska is experiencing some form of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

“The weather models are showing a much drier May coming up for the central-upper Plains and the heart of the Midwest,” Tolleris said. 

Rain For Winter Wheat States

Tolleris said that a band of 2- to 5-inch rains will move through some winter wheat areas. Winter wheat condition was rated 47 percent good/excellent in Kansas and 44 percent good/excellent in Oklahoma, according to the most recent Crop Progress Report. 

“The European model has a band of 2- to 5 inch rains, starting in central and eastern Texas, then up into the western half of Oklahoma, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado,” Tolleris said. “Couldn’t ask for better rainfall for those areas.”