Hurricane-Level Flooding Expected to Impact Farmers Along the Ohio River

Farmers in states along the Ohio River should expect historic levels of flooding and possible tornadoes as the first week of April comes to a close.

Expected Rainfall Totals

The first round of flooding is expected to impact the majority of Indiana from 5 to 9 p.m. on Wednesday, April 2, said Indiana State Climatologist Beth Hall.

Additional storm systems are anticipated to bring even more precipitation after the soils are drenched with high levels of rainfall from the first storm, Hall said. The storms that are bringing these historic levels of precipitation are expected to take place until Friday, April 4, she said.

AccuWeather expert meteorologists said that downpours and these back-to-back storms across the same region of the country could bring as much as 21 inches of rain across parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Illinois, and Indiana.  

While Hall said the expectation that more rain would be good for the soil moisture levels and the crops farmers will be growing this season, “the ground is going to be saturated, causing runoff from that rain,” she said. 

These storms that are set to impact Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and other states along the Ohio River are likely to be slow moving, Hall said. As a result, the storms will bring torrential rainfall over an extended period of time, she said, and “all of that moisture will create the flooding” that will impact those in the pathway of these storm systems. 

How This Flooding Might Impact Farmers

Hall said that, for any farmers that might have already gotten this season’s row crops in the ground, there’s a significant likelihood that the high levels of precipitation “could be enough to wash away the seeds.”

Overall, rainfall amounts are expected to be reflective of the amount of rain that would fall during a significant hurricane, Hall said. This is likely to lead to erosion and nutrient loss, she said.

Additionally, Hall said that there’s a possibility that storage damage could occur from the high levels of rainfall. 

Alex Sosnowski, senior meteorologist and flooding expert with AccuWeather, said there will be several acres of farmland “submerged in flood waters, leaving behind a muddy mess that could delay spring planting.”

Risk of Tornadoes

Tornadoes are also an expected risk from the impending storms, with a rare high risk possibly accompanying the severe thunderstorms that will move from northeastern Texas, northwestern Louisiana, much of Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, northwestern Mississippi, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, southern Illinois, as well as southwestern and central Indiana, according to AccuWeather expert meteorologists. 

“We expect storms to erupt Wednesday afternoon with tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts,” AccuWeather Severe Weather Expert Guy Pearson said. “The highest risk of tornadoes will extend from southern Indiana and Illinois to southeastern Missouri, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi, much of Arkansas and northern Louisiana. The threat of strong and long-track tornadoes will continue well into the evening and overnight hours.”

Dry Weather and Below Normal Temperatures Likely to Follow Historic Storms

As this multi-day storm system subsides, Hall said both the 6-to-10 day and 8-to-14 day outlooks show dry conditions after the flooding. “We’re going from one extreme with everything hitting us all at once,” Hall said, “with it all going away for a long period of time.”

A “slight risk of dangerously cold temperatures” is coming, Hall said. This follows the last week of March when temperatures were nearly 80°F, “and now we’re at risk for cold temperatures,” Hall said. 

Specifically, she said April 10 is a date of concern for low temperatures. 

While dry conditions may help dry out the saturated soils following the floods, Hall said there’s a risk that the fields will remain dry well into planting with little to no precipitation to help row crops emerge.