How Valuable Is Large Equipment on the Resale Market?

The first buyer of a piece of equipment is easy to identify. They order what they want and sometimes even have it made exactly to their specifications. However, once that farmer moves on from that machine, finding the next owner is more challenging, as the equipment gets larger.

Andy Campbell, director of insights for Tractor Zoom, says there are a limited number of farms able to take on something like a Class 10 combine.

“Your outfit has to be tailored to handle that much grain that fast,” he said. “If you’re pulling through 1,200, 1,300 bushels an hour, you have to have multiple trucks. You have to have labor. Your dryer system has to be large enough to handle that, because you’re probably not taking that much grain to town.

“It’s a lot of infrastructure to consider, and some people are built that way,” Campbell continued. “But most people aren’t. And with the farm economy where it is today, it makes less sense to borrow money to make those upgrades.”

Greg Koch, owner of KDK Sales and Equipment in Washington, Iowa, said the pool of farmers looking for larger, late-model used equipment is shrinking.

“The pool of second buyers for that size of equipment is very small, because the guys that are big enough to run it usually buy new because they want the warranty, the service, fewer breakdowns,” he said. “It becomes economics 101 — the biggest bleeding comes on large planters, combines, heads.”

Supply Cycles, Auction Values, and Depreciation (Oh My!)

Combines tend to follow a seasonal sales cycle. Peak used supply is found in spring and early summer. Supply lowers through harvest, followed by a post-harvest uptick, with trade-ins for newer machines. Campbell said the X9’s peak-to-trough inventory drawdown was 28% in 2023 and 27% in 2024.

He noted auction values have also remained steady when comparing 2023 to 2024 sales.

“In the last 60 days [from December 2024], X9 1000s were selling for the same price at auction that we observed the last 18 months,” Campbell said. “I’m not seeing a big year-over-year change in auction values on these machines. However, the per-hour depreciation rate is significant.”

The X9 combine is John Deere’s largest model on the market today.

Determining the depreciation is a helpful financial exercise to calculate before purchasing, although the first-owner rate can be tricky to calculate since it is influenced by the starting and ending points of sale. Once the machine is sold for a second or third time, the rates become more predictable, according to Campbell.

Several years ago, when these combines were being ordered new, the farm economy was much different. Now, late-model used machines with low hours are not seeing the resale prices one might have expected at the time of purchase.

“When dealers agreed on a trade-in value, say nine months ago, the market has now dropped so much that it’s probably already below profitability for the dealer,” Campbell said. “This isn’t unique to combines; it’s all equipment right now.”

Koch said he sees a big disparity between new values and the price second owners are willing to pay for large equipment.

“Smaller producers must account for the potential bottleneck that a ‘new’ big piece of equipment creates,” he said. “It’s not just the purchase of the initial piece. A bigger combine would likely require bigger grain carts, more semis, or a faster grain leg to keep it moving.”

Recent Sales Data

A search of machinefinder.com, Deere’s used equipment website, found 326 X9 combines on dealer lots, including 1000 and 1100 models. The low asking price was $369,000, for a 2021 X9 1000 in Nebraska, with 1,134 hours and 742 separator hours. The high price was $999,999, for a 2022 X9 1000 in Ohio, with 506 hours and 321 separator hours.

Tractorhouse.com listed auction sales results for 43 X9 1000 and 1100 combines, with an average hammer price of $467,988. The high sale price was $637,000 for a 2022 X9 1100 in Iowa, with 265 hours and 210 separator hours. The low price was $284,070 for a 2021 X9 1100 in Missouri, with 1,850 hours and 1,242 separator hours.

Looking Ahead

Campbell compared today’s Class 10 combines to Class 8 combines several years ago.

“Historically, Class 8 combines were considered ‘too big,’ but now they’re all over the place,” he said. “There was an oversupply last year, but it’s being managed, and recently, Class 8 combine values have slowed their descent.”

Koch urged farmers to remember that everything in life is cyclical, and that it’s better to be proactive than reactive.

“Be realistic about the marketplace and become educated,” he said. “What something was worth 18 or 24 months ago is a far cry from what it is today.”

Campbell predicts price erosion to continue into 2025, because most dealerships are still working through an abundance of combines on their lots.

“If an operation can take on a combine of this size, there’s an opportunity there,” he said. “The market is looking for farmers who can step in to fill that demand void — not a giant farmer, but a bigger farmer who can absorb these machines.

“What we don’t know is how many of those farmers are actually out there. It’s a finite group of people.”