How Can Farmers Develop a Marketing Strategy to Manage Price Swings in 2026?

What Happened

As 2025 winds down, 2026 marketing decisions begin to loom larger on the horizon. Many decisions will need to be made as marketing opportunities unfold. Creating a balanced approach in front of the upcoming season will take time, energy, and concentrated effort. Yet, it can be kept somewhat simple with strategic planning and discipline. Make it your goal to market a portion of the crop prior to summer with forward sales and use options to cover both downside risk and upside opportunities. 

Why This Is Important

Assuming normal crop production, it is not unusual for the market to add a premium to price when crop production uncertainties peak. This typically occurs in the winter and spring. The unknowns, such as the number of acres, summer growing conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, and developing crops in the Southern Hemisphere, loom large. As these uncertainties become less uncertain, price usually reflects this through declining value. Last marketing year was a prime example. Prices peaked late in 2024 or in the first two months of 2025. Then, as growing conditions remained favorable for the U.S. and South America, prices eroded through summer, bottoming in August.

Taking advantage of rally opportunities and selling ahead can help shift downside price risk. Yet, when selling ahead, there is always the chance that prices could continue to rally, or that weather conditions, which could impact crop progress, could send prices sharply higher. Therefore, consider forward sales with the purchase of call options on these sales. In addition to forward selling, purchasing put options on bushels not expected to be sold prior to harvest is a good way to defend against downward price potential. 

What Can You Do?

Develop a strategy that works for you. A simple and powerful approach is to forward contract half of your expected production prior to June. At the same time, purchase call options for those bushels. For the other half of expected production, defend against lower prices by purchasing put options. You now have a strategy that covers 100% of the expected production if prices fall. If prices rally, the unpriced crop can participate. Though forward contracted bushels cannot participate in the rally, the call options that were purchased on these sales can. Ultimately, as the growing season unfolds, you are prepared for prices to move in either direction. This strategy does away with trying to outguess how summer weather will unfold.

Find What Works for You

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation rather than emotionally charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic.   

Editor’s Note: If you have any questions on this Perspective, feel free to contact Bryan Doherty at Total Farm Marketing: (800) 334-9779.

Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy, or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.

About the Author: With the wisdom of 30 years at Total Farm Marketing and a following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of brokerage solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the tools and markets, listens, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with the decisions.