Grain futures open mixed | Friday, November 29, 2024

Grain futures are mixed to start this holiday shortened session. Grain futures will end trading today at 12:05pm Central Time. Corn is up 2 to 3¢, soybeans are down 3 to 5¢ while the wheat complex is steady to up 3¢. The USDA Weekly Export Sales report was released this morning due to the Thanksgiving holiday yesterday. Wheat posted net sales of 366,800 metric tons, corn had 1,062,900 metric tons reported net sales for 2024/25 and 67,200 metric tons for 2025/26 and soybeans sales were reported at 2,490,500 metric tons for 2024/25 and 18,000 metric tons for 2025/26. It is worth noting that this report did show China buying 13,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil; China has not bought U.S. soybean oil since 2020/21 marketing year.

Grain traders will begin to weigh the potential of a massive South American crop this year. Weather that started out dry early in the growing season has shifted to nearly ideal conditions. Local analysts are increasing production estimates nearly every week as the weather improves. The world balance sheet appears to be increasing for soybeans.

Livestock futures are mixed in early trade. Feeder Cattle are down 50¢, Live Cattle are up 10¢ and Lean Hogs are up 47¢. Cash cattle this week was reported $2 to $5 higher on Wednesday. Did the packers get all of their buying down early this week, or will we see further cash trade today? The USDA Weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for both beef and pork. Beef sales were reported at 4,800 metric tons while pork was pegged at 17,200 metric tons. Traders are hoping the U.S. dollar has peaked and will begin trending lower as the U.S. dollar near 108 is not helping the beef or pork export market.

In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.16, crude oil is up 69¢, S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and the Dow Jones is up 127 points. Traders will be watching the 105.87 mark in the U.S. dollar today closely as it is the 20-day moving average. We have only closed below this line once since the current rally began on September 30.

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About the Author: Bob Linneman is a commodities broker with Kluis Commodity Advisors. Linneman grew up on a diverse farm in eastern South Dakota. Between milking cows, managing a beef herd, and farming various crops, he experienced many aspects of agriculture firsthand. After graduating from North Dakota State University with a degree in business, he moved to Hawaii with his wife. There he was an associate portfolio manager for a fixed income firm that managed $2 billion in assets. After nearly two years in Hawaii, he moved back to the Midwest and began his career in commodities. Linneman is licensed as a Series 3 and Series 30 commodity broker.

Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.