Global Production Is Expected to Rise — Is Your Marketing Plan Ready?

What Happened

According to a recent article from World-Grain.com, global agricultural production is expected to increase 14% in the next decade. Figures cited are from the OECD-FAO (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations) Agriculture Outlook for 2025–2034.  

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is an annual publication jointly produced by the OECD and the FAO. The publication provides an assessment of the prospects for global agricultural commodity markets for the upcoming decade. 

The FAO is headquartered in Rome, Italy, and has a presence in more than 130 countries. It is governed by a director-general and a council, which are composed of representatives from member countries. 

Why This Is Important

This report provides a view of where world agriculture production and consumption may be headed. Here are some highlights from their 2025–2034 outlook:  

• It anticipates increasing production will come from improved yield potential as well as some land expansion in developing countries, most notably in Central America and India.  
• Wheat production will increase 74 million metric tons (mmt) to 874 mmt.  
• India will be the largest contributor, contributing 29% of the increase to world wheat production.  
• Global corn production will increase 188 mmt to 1.4 billion metric tons. The biggest increases will come from the U.S. (33 mmt), Brazil (32 mmt), and China (27 mmt), mostly through yield improvement.  
• Soybean production is expected to rise, though at a slower pace than the previous decade, which saw rapid global expansion, particularly in South America.  
• Global soybean crush will increase 62 mmt, compared to a 95 mmt increase in the previous decade. 
• Improvements in technology, tillage practices, and farming practices will continue to point toward production efficiencies. This could mean prolonged periods where prices hover at or below the cost of production.  

What Can You Do?

Be vigilant when crop prices rally. An expectation for reliable world production will elevate marketplace confidence that ample supplies are on the horizon. Develop a strategic approach to manage the risk of larger-than-expected supplies. A balance of using cash and paper (futures and options) tools may be necessary to navigate a changing environment. Selling crops well before harvest (potentially years before) to take advantage of market carry (cost of holding supplies) may be necessary to capture margin. At the same time, you will need to be prepared for supply disruptions, such as weather or politics.  

Take time now to plan the future. Embrace and manage the opportunities that price volatility may bring.

Find What Works for You

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation rather than emotionally charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic.

Editor’s Note: If you have any questions on this Perspective, feel free to contact Bryan Doherty at Total Farm Marketing: (800) 334-9779.

Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy, or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.

About the Author: With the wisdom of 30 years at Total Farm Marketing and a following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of brokerage solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the tools and markets, listens, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with the decisions.