Glimmer of Hope for Rain in Parched Midwest

The National Weather Service precipitation outlook shows an above average chance for rain across the Midwest. That comes as good news for Midwest farmers.

According to Iowa State Climatologist Justin Glisan, Iowa experienced its driest September on record, and as of Oct. 21, was on track for its second-driest October on record. However, he said there is a chance for widespread precipitation throughout the Corn Belt before Halloween. 

“Any moisture that we can bank now before we freeze up in winter is much needed for the next growing season,” Glisan said.

Topsoil Moisture

Glisan expressed concern about topsoil moisture going into winter. Current topsoil moisture in Iowa is some of the driest he’s ever seen. However, October is typically the driest time of the year in Iowa. Glisan said to avoid drought expansion, the state would need to see consistent near-average rainfall throughout the rest of October and November. 

“I’ll take anything we can get, but if we get into a deluge, it isn’t going to hamper harvest or field work given how dry soils are,” Glisan said. 

The entire Midwest remains in some degree of drought. Eric Hunt, assistant extension educator for the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, said this year’s drought is worse compared with 2012, 2020, and 2022. Hunt believes upcoming precipitation is a step in the right direction, but will not be “drought-breaking rains.”

“If we don’t get significant precipitation to start recharging those soils before we go into winter, we are going to be stuck starting off in the spring,” Hunt said. 

Winter Wheat

For farmers with winter wheat, Hunt says rain is an “absolute godsend.” He said the difference between planted and emerged winter wheat is greater than normal because the crop hasn’t had the moisture needed to germinate. The most recent USDA Crop Progress Report said 73% of the country’s winter wheat is planted and 46% has emerged, compared with the five-year average of 76% planted and 50% emerged. 

“If we get a good rain next week, then we still have a solid shot for a good crop for winter wheat in this area,” Hunt said. “But if we don’t get any more precipitation for the remainder of fall, it could be a really grim outlook for wheat.” 

Reduced Fire Risk

Rain next week would also reduce risk for field fires. Glisan said any moisture at this point is good, but the risk for fire will remain. According to the Iowa Department of Public Safety, 59 out of Iowa’s 99 counties are in a burn ban as of Oct. 25. 

“The precipitation cuts down on fire potential, but we definitely need a lot more to quash the widespread fire potential,” Glisan said.