Fire risk persists across Midwest with little rain in sight

Red flag warnings have been issued throughout the Midwest because of warm, dry conditions and low humidity while the chance for significant precipitation throughout the region looks slim. 

The risk for igniting field fires remains high for farmers with wind gusts as high as 45 mph in Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota. According to Dennis Todey, director of the USDA Midwest Climate Hub, risk for fire is here to stay.

“When harvest is done, that removes one level of risk but our overall potential for fire is still with us,” Todey said. 

Most people don’t think of winter as a time for fire risk, but some fire experts are changing their minds about that. “We don’t really have a ‘non-season’ for fires anymore,” Todey said. 

Precipitation outlook

Looking ahead to the next few weeks, the potential for precipitation looks insignificant. According to the National Weather Service’s 6- to 10-day and 8- to 14-day precipitation outlooks, most of the central United States can expect “near normal” chances for probability. Todey said there is a chance for scattered precipitation throughout the Midwest early next week. 

“It may help establish some cover crops and put down some dust, but, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a big game changer for anything,” Todey said.

Lack of precipitation poses issues for livestock producers who rely on natural sources for water like ponds. Madelynn Wuestenberg, agricultural climatology specialist for Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, said pond levels are a concern. 

“With such lack of rain, we’re starting to see ponds getting too low to be used for livestock watering,” Wuestenberg said. 

She said this is the driest time of the year, and expects only about half an inch of rain per week. However, the compounding effects of drought and lack of precipitation are bringing concerns for farmers growing cover crops and winter wheat. According to the most recent Crop Progress Report, 64% of winter wheat in the top 18 growing states has been planted and 35% has emerged. 

“We really need to get some rainfall on the ground and get some moisture in the soil for germination of either cover crops or winter wheat,” Todey said. 

Soil temperature

Wuestenberg cautioned about high soil temperatures for farmers applying fall nitrogen. Soil temperatures need to be below 50° for ideal fall nitrogen application. Immobilization and leaching can occur when temperatures are too high at application. 

“The soil temperatures are also going to be very highly dependent on air temperature because it’s so dry,” Wuestenberg said. 

La Niña prediction 

The National Weather Service released both seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks for the coming winter, which will have a “slowly developing La Niña.” A La Nina winter generally means colder and wetter winters for the northern region of the United States and warmer, drier winters in the southern region. However, for states in the Midwest, effects can vary. Wuestenberg said this winter in Iowa could end up being “fairly normal.” 

“This La Nina is expected to be fairly short-lived and fairly weak,” Wuestenberg said.