Farmer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level Since 2021

By Ryan Hanrahan

Bloomberg’s Michael Hirtzer, Erin Ailworth, and Skylar Woodhouse reported Tuesday that “American farmer sentiment jumped to a four-year high, with growers betting on rising crop exports as the Trump administration pushes for more trade deals from Vietnam to Italy.”

“U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed an America-first agenda that has hit crop exports. Top commodities buyer China currently has no sales on the books for U.S. corn, soybeans, or wheat to be shipped next season,” Hirtzer, Ailworth, and Woodhouse reported. “Still, farmers are more optimistic, according to Purdue University and CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer, which surveyed some 400 producers between May 12–May 16, just after the Trump administration announced ‘substantial progress’ toward a trade deal with China. The index hit a reading of 158, the highest since 2021.”

“A ‘skyrocketing’ number of farmers expect increased agricultural exports over the next five years, according to the survey. However, only 28% strongly agree that ‘free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries’ — down from 49% of farmers who agreed with the statement when it was first posed back in November 2020,” Hirtzer, Ailworth, and Woodhouse reported. “The results ‘provide additional evidence that producers’ views on trade have shifted,’ according to the barometer.”

Producers Views on Trade Shift Sharply in May

The Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture’s Michael Langemeier and James Mintert wrote in the barometer that “one of the drivers behind this month’s shift in farmer sentiment appeared to be a much more positive view of the U.S.’s long-run agricultural trade prospects.”

“In May, the percentage of producers who said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to increase over the next five years skyrocketed to 52%, up from 33% who responded that way just a month earlier,” Langemeier and Mintert wrote. “This was the highest percentage of positive responses received to this question since November 2020. At the same time, the percentage of producers who said they expect exports to decline fell to just 12%, down from 24% who felt that way in April.”

“To learn more about U.S. producers’ views on trade, the May survey repeated a question that was first posed in barometer surveys in the fall of 2020. Producers were asked if they ‘Strongly Disagree’, ‘Disagree,’ ‘Agree,’ or ‘Strongly Agree’ with the following statement: ‘Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries,’” Langemeier and Mintert wrote. “‘In fall 2020, an average of 49% of respondents chose ‘Strongly Agree’ with the free trade statement. This stands in sharp contrast to the results from this month’s survey, in which only 28% of respondents chose ‘Strongly Agree.’”

“Responses to a question previously posed in the barometer’s March and April surveys provide additional evidence that producers’ views on trade have shifted. Producers were asked about the expected impact of the U.S.’s tariff policy on their farms’ income in 2025,” Langemeier and Mintert wrote. “In March and April, 57% and 56% of respondents, respectively, said they expected tariffs to have a ‘Negative’ or ‘Very Negative’ impact on their farm’s income. In May, this percentage fell to 43%, while the percentage expecting ‘No Impact’ rose to 30%, compared to 19% and 22% in March and April, respectively.”

Farm Labor Could Be an Emerging Issue

Langemeier and Mintert wrote that “in what could be an emerging issue, one out of four crop and livestock producers who typically hire non-family members said the U.S. administration’s policy to reduce immigration could increase their difficulty in hiring adequate labor for their farm operation.”

“One out of four respondents who hire non-family members to work on their farms said they expected a ‘Lot of difficulty’ (10%) or ‘Some Difficulty’ (16%) in hiring adequate labor,” Langemeier and Mintert wrote. “Keeping in mind that barometer surveys do not target specialty crop producers who tend to hire more non-family labor, results suggest that reduced farm labor availability could be a significant concern for some U.S. crop and livestock producers.”

Farmer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level Since 2021 was originally published by Farmdoc.