Farmer Sentiment Holds Steady as Tariff Support Drops

By Ryan Hanrahan

World-Grain’s Arvin Donley reported that “U.S. farmers are concerned about current economic conditions but are optimistic about the long-term outlook of the agricultural economy, according to survey results released on Oct. 7 by Purdue University and the CME Group.”

“Their monthly Ag Economy Barometer Index rose by one point to 126 after falling for three straight months. However, there was a shift in producers’ perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future,” Donley reported. “The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122, while the Index of Future Expectations climbed 5 points to 128.”

“The survey was conducted following the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) release of the September Crop Production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. These reflected farmers’ concerns about current conditions, particularly over record-high corn and soybean yields, which were pressuring crop prices,” Donley reported. “At the same time, optimism about the future was supported by farmers’ belief that US policy is ‘headed in the right direction’ and by expectations that potential government support, like the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices.”

“‘High production costs and weak crop prices are pressuring farm incomes on US crop farms,’ said Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture,” Donley reported. “‘A large majority of US farmers expect government support to bolster farm incomes if crop prices remain weak.’”

Confidence in Tariffs Weakens for Second Straight Month

Farm News Media reported that “a substantial majority (71%) of farmers in August survey reported that things in the U.S. are ‘headed in the right direction,’ similar to the July and August survey results. However, Langemeier noted that confidence in the long-run impact of tariffs has weakened.”

“Just over half of respondents (51%) said they expect tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy, down from 63% of June’s survey respondents and 70% of respondents in both the April and May surveys who said they expect the use of tariffs to have a long-term positive impact,” Farm News Media reported. “At the same time, 30% now believe tariffs will weaken the agricultural economy, and 19% are uncertain — more than double the number of respondents who were uncertain in the spring.”

“Amidst growing concerns about tariffs, most farmers expect potential government support to help cushion the impact,” Farm News Media reported. “In September, 83% of producers said a program similar to the 2019 MFP is likely if a trade war drives commodity prices lower, with 62% calling it ‘very likely’ and another 21% saying it is ‘likely.’”

Farmland Values Largely Expected to Remain Level

Langemeier and James Mintert reported that “producers’ short-term outlook for farmland values weakened in September for the fourth consecutive month. The Short-Term Farmland Values Expectations Index fell 6 points to 106, which was 18 points lower than 2025’s peak reading of 124 recorded in May.”

“Looking at producers’ responses to the question about farmland values, this month’s change in the index was primarily attributable to fewer producers saying they expect values to rise and a larger proportion of farmers expecting farmland values to remain about the same,” Langemeier and Mintert reported. “Fifty-eight percent of this month’s survey respondents said they expect farmland values to remain about the same over the course of the next year, up from 54% a month earlier.“

Farmer Sentiment Holds Steady as Tariff Support Drops was originally published by Farmdoc.