Celeres Raises Forecast for Brazil’s Soy Crop; Harvest Delay Persists

By Roberto Samora and Gabriel Araujo

SAO PAULO, Feb 3 (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop is expected to reach a record 174 million metric tons, agribusiness consultancy Celeres said on Monday, bumping up its forecast from a prior 170.8 million tons due to positive weather conditions.

That would be 15 million tons more than in 2023/24, when farmers grappled with adverse weather, Celeres said, adding that the bumper crop would be driven by higher yields in Brazil’s center-western, northern and northeastern regions.

Agribusiness consultancies have been widely expecting a record crop in Brazil this season, with many forecasting output to exceed 170 million tons.

Celeres noted that fresh revisions to its forecast could be made as harvesting efforts advance.

“Data on the soybean harvest, which remains delayed, will be incorporated into upcoming production estimates, with adjustments to the crop figure expected in the coming months,” the analysts said.

On the other hand, consultancy firm StoneX marginally cut on Monday its 2024/25 estimate for the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans by 0.3%, to 170.9 million tons.

StoneX said the cut reflects dry weather risk in Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul states.

Harvest Delay

Separate data released by consultancy AgRural on Monday showed that farmers had harvested 9% of the planted area as of last Thursday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week but still lagging previous seasons.

That may narrow second-corn’s planting window, making it more exposed to climate risk.

Brazil’s second-corn is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas and represents about 75% of national production in a given year.

At the same time last year, AgRural said in a statement, 16% of the total soy area had been reaped. Second-corn planting in Brazil’s center-south was estimated at 9%, up from 2.2% in the previous week but well below last year’s 27%.

StoneX also warned about the risk of second-corn being planted outside the “ideal window.” Still, the firm raised by 0.2% its second-corn crop’s forecast to 101.7 million tons, citing a larger planted area.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora and Gabriel Araujo, Editing by Louise Heavens and Marguerita Choy)