A global economic slowdown will combine with inflation, higher interest rates, and the strong dollar to erode U.S. food and agriculture exports by 12% through fiscal 2026, projected the USDA on Wednesday.
“Macroeconomic conditions are expected to slow U.S. exports earlier than imports, leading to a negative trade balance” that would gradually grow larger, said the USDA’s long-term baseline.
Exports would decline across the board, with grains and soybeans hit the hardest, said USDA analysts, based on conditions in November. “Reduced export volumes are expected with lower commodity prices also expected to follow.”
A rebound is expected to begin in 2027. Farm exports were forecast at $190 billion this year, dropping to $166.3 billion in fiscal 2026 and then rising to $182.2 billion in 2032, the final year of the 10-year baseline.
Imports also would be affected by the worldwide slowdown but would recover by the end of the decade. Food and ag imports were forecast at $199.1 billion this year and $200 billion in 2032. Horticultural products account for half of U.S. ag imports, with fruit and vegetable imports projected to climb by 2 percent a year.
“This growth has largely been driven by desire for year-round supply, changing consumer preferences, and increasingly competitive foreign production,” said the USDA.
The USDA baseline is available here.
