As Harvest Rushes to an End, Don’t Forget Markets and Safety

What Happened in the Market

Soybean harvest is wrapping up and corn harvest is moving at a fever pace with a lack of rain this fall. Producers have had little time to rest and have been able to forge on with harvest. Yields have been coming in good for the most part and as expected. With a pick-up in recent demand, prices have held $4 support in corn and $9.80 in soybeans. 

As rain began to fall in South America, soybean traders removed about $1 of the weather premium, taking November soybeans back below $10. But with harvest nearly complete, there could be a technical post-harvest bounce in part due to the market being oversold and uncertainties such as the U.S. election and increased measures to prop up China’s economy. 

Be prepared to take advantage of a rally to sell soybeans. The longer-term market perspective for beans remains negative with an expected large production out of South America and the bulk of their sales headed to China. Defending Nov. 25 beans near $10.50 should be considered as well. 

Corn has been finding some support of its own recently with strong demand and competitive pricing. It’s also very tied to what the wheat market is doing; as wheat rallies on weather concerns, corn follows. However, when Russia makes attempts to put in a price floor or garner more of the market share, wheat falls and takes corn with it.

Corn could have a 20¢ to 40¢ post-harvest rally. Consider rewarding with cash sales. Re-own with calls if you want to trade weather longer term but be cost aware when paying for storage. 

From a Marketing Perspective 

As always, consider rewarding any post-harvest rallies with sales. Watch your basis and should it tighten closer to Christmas, look to take advantage. South America is getting beneficial rains and could potentially raise an enormous soybean crop. This may be a good time to be aggressively marketing cash soybeans. 

Corn has rallied over 20¢ this week. Consider selling with orders in place at the elevator should corn get a bounce back to $4.50 in December futures. 

Prepare Yourself 

It’s been a fast and furious harvest due to the dry weather. There has been little time to rest with each day being perfect for getting crops harvested, but please always be aware of fatigue. Give yourself time to rest, stay hydrated, and take time to eat. That crop isn’t going anywhere, and with the long hours and fire hazards due to dryness, risks remain. Your safety and well-being outweigh the urgency to finish. 

About the Author

If you have questions, you can reach Cathy at cekstrand@s-pelmwood.com or visit www.TotalFarmMarketing.com for more information. 

Cathy Ekstrand is a senior market advisor with Total Farm Marketing’s brokerage arm, Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. She currently works from her home in rural Yates City, Illinois. After graduating from the University of Illinois with a degree in AgCommunications, Cathy’s resume includes working for Shissler Seed Co., now LG Seeds and Galesburg Register Mail as well as a position in sales while staying at home with children. She began her career with Stewart-Peterson in 2001. She works with farm clients across the country and has presented at Annie’s projects all over the state. She and her husband have a small farm and encouraged their two sons to pursue careers in agriculture. Cathy and her husband Roland are also grandparents to three beautiful children, two boys and a baby girl. 

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