A ‘Trump Bump’ on the Farm, With a Dollop of Trade War Anxiety

As it did eight years ago, Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election has ignited a surge of enthusiasm among farmers, although two-fifths of them say there is a risk of a damaging trade war, said a Purdue University poll released on Tuesday. The Ag Economy Barometer, a gauge of farmer confidence, surged 30 points to its highest reading since May 2021.

“Some of the reasons behind the improvement in farmer sentiment include expectations for a future regulatory and tax environment for the agricultural sector that is more favorable than expected prior to the November elections,” said agricultural economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeir, who oversee the barometer.

However, two of every five respondents said a trade war that significantly reduced agricultural exports was “likely” or “very likely.” About one-fifth of U.S. agricultural production is exported. Sales fell during the Sino-U.S. trade war during Trump’s first term. In running for a second term, Trump advocated tariffs of up to 20% on imported goods and of up to 60% on Chinese products.

When Trump was elected in 2016, the stock market rose by nearly 8% in four weeks, dubbed the “Trump bump.” The Ag Barometer also surged, with a 24-point gain in November 2016. This time, the barometer rose by 30 points, to 145, from 115 in October.

For the Ag Barometer, Purdue interviews operators with production worth at least $500,000 a year. According to USDA data, 7.4% of U.S. farms have annual sales of $500,000 or more. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. The latest survey was conducted from Nov 11-15.

The Ag Economy Barometer was available here.