3 Big Things Today, October 31, 2024

1. Soybean Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures were modestly higher in overnight trading on technical buying and dry weather in the U.S. Midwest. 

Investors who were short the market, or had bet on lower prices, likely jumped in and bought back contracts after prices dropped around 1% in the past week. 

About 66% of a nine-state region that includes Iowa and Illinois, the largest producers of both soybeans and corn, was suffering from drought conditions last week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

That’s up from 53% a week earlier and only 3.9% three months ago. 

Eighty-three percent of Iowa was seeing drought versus 73% seven days earlier and zero percent three months prior, the monitor said. Some 67% of Illinois was suffering from drought as of Oct. 22, up from 38% the week prior and zero percent three months earlier. 

The Drought Monitor is scheduled to update its maps today.

The dry weather has led to extremely low levels on waterways used to transport grain including the Mississippi River. 

The river at Caruthersville, Missouri, between St. Louis and Memphis, was at minus-1.57 feet, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. Water levels at that location are forecast to drop to minus-2.1 feet next week before recovering slightly. 

If the Mississippi River drops to that level, that would be the second lowest for Caruthersville on record, NOAA data show. The waterway fell to minus-2.98 feet in October 2023 and 1.82 feet in October 2022. 

The river in Memphis is at minus-11.3 feet this morning, which marks the third-lowest level on record behind only the past two Octobers, the weather service said. 

Soybean futures for January delivery rose 4½¢ to $9.95¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up a dime to $301.70 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.53¢ to 44.34¢ a pound. 

Corn futures lost ¾¢ to $4.10¾ a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery fell 2¾¢ to $5.70½ a bushel, and Kansas City futures dropped 2¼¢ to $5.73¼ a bushel. 

2. Weekly Ethanol Production Rises Slightly

Ethanol output rose slightly week to week while inventories declined, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. 

Production increased to an average of 1.082 million barrels a day in the week that ended on Oct. 25, the agency said. 

That’s up from 1.081 million barrels the previous week and a fresh two-month high. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output increased to an average of 1.023 million barrels a day, up from 1.014 million the week prior, EIA said. 

West Coast production was up to 10,000 barrels from 7,000 a day the previous week. 

East Coast output was unchanged at 12,000 barrels, the government said. 

Rocky Mountain production fell a thousand barrels to an average of 14,000 a day, and Gulf Coast output plunged to 23,000 barrels a day from 33,000 a week earlier. 

Ethanol inventories in the seven days that ended on Oct. 25 dropped to 21.771 million barrels. That’s down from 22.223 million the previous week and the lowest level for stockpiles since Dec. 1, EIA said in its report. 

3. Freeze Warnings in Effect in the Southern Plains

Freeze warnings remain in effect this morning in the southern Plains as temperatures overnight dropped to around 25° Fahrenheit, according to the National Weather Service. 

Parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles ranged from 28° to 32° overnight, with some areas in eastern Colorado falling further, the agency said.

Further north, thunderstorms are forecast for parts of central Indiana today and tonight, some of which may turn severe. 

Winds are expected to reach 40 to 50 mph and showers are forecast in the area, NWS said. 

In central Illinois, meanwhile, winds will reach 40 mph this afternoon, the agency said. Storms will return this weekend and last through Tuesday.