3 Big Things Today, Oct. 20, 2025

1. Soybeans Surge Overnight on Trade Optimism

Soybean futures were higher in overnight trading on optimism about restarting trade with China. 

President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. will work with China to end the ongoing tariff war between the world’s two largest economies. 

Officials from the U.S. and China spoke on a call Friday that Chinese state media said was constructive. 

Trump said he wants the Asian nation to again buy U.S. soybeans ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping that’s set for the end of the month. 

The meeting between the heads of state has whipsawed markets after Trump initially said he would meet with Xi on the sidelines of an economic forum in South Korea at the end of October. 

It was apparently off for a brief time after China imposed restrictions on rare-earth materials, prompting Trump to say he may not meet with Xi and instead would impose an additional 100% in tariffs on goods from the Asian country. 

That caused prices to again plunge, prompting Trump to backtrack a couple of days later and say everything is fine with China. 

Trump indicated over the weekend that he might reduce tariffs on China if they “do things” for the U.S. include buying soybeans and ending export restrictions on rare-earth materials. 

Soybean futures for November delivery jumped 9¢ to $10.45¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal added $3.80 to $284.80 a short ton and soybean oil futures dropped 0.14¢ to 50.99¢ a pound. 

Corn futures rose ½¢ to $4.23 a bushel. 

Wheat futures for December delivery fell ¼¢ to $5.03½ a bushel, and Kansas City futures rose ¼¢ to $4.91¾ a bushel. 

2. Potash, Phosphate Prices Down Weekly, Mizuho Says

Potash and phosphate prices fell last week while nitrogen was mostly unchanged, according to a commodities report from Mizuho Securities USA. 

The price of potash in New Orleans fell about 1.5% to $328 a ton while costs in the Midwest declined 0.7% to $373 a ton, the investment bank said. 

Phosphate prices dropped about 0.3% to $851 a ton. 

“Phosphate affordability is at its lowest level since 2008, continuing to raise concerns about demand deferral (and) destruction,” Mizuho said. 

Nitrogen prices, meanwhile, were mostly unchanged last week at about $376 a ton in New Orleans and $435 a ton in the Midwest, the firm said. 

“Supply disruptions and delays in capacities coming online have led to higher ammonia prices, with the benchmark Tampa price recently settled up $40 in October following a $53-per-metric-ton increase in September,” Mizuho said in its report. 

3. Strong Winds Expected in North Dakota, South Dakota

Wind advisories and high-wind warnings have been issued for much of North Dakota and South Dakota, according to National Weather Service maps.

Winds in central North Dakota are expected to gust up to 55 mph today and tomorrow, the agency said in a report early this morning. 

Gusts in central South Dakota, meanwhile, will reach as high as 60 mph this afternoon. 

Further south, cold and dry weather is forecast for western Kansas and eastern Colorado where hard red winter wheat planting is underway. 

Freeze warnings and frost advisories have been issued for the area as temperatures overnight into Tuesday will fall to around 28°F, NWS said. 

Winds in the area are expected to gust up to 45 mph today, while relative humidity is forecast to drop as low as 12%, the agency said.