3 Big Things Today, November 18, 2024

1. Soybean Futures Fall in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading on forecasts for favorable weather in parts of Brazil and on concerns about demand for U.S. products moving forward. 

Rain was expected over the weekend in some growing areas of Brazil and improvements to dry regions are forecast for this week, according to weather reports. 

Brazil is expected to produce a record 169 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 marketing year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

If realized, that would be up from the 153 million tons produced a year earlier and top the previous record of 162 million tons harvested in the 2022/2023 marketing year, according to USDA. 

U.S. production, meanwhile, is forecast at 121.4 million metric tons, up from 113.3 million a year earlier, the government said. 

Also weighing on soybean futures are concerns about demand should President-elect Donald Trump impose promised tariffs on goods from trading partners including China. 

That would undoubtedly kick off a trade war and push Chinese buyers of soybeans and other agricultural products to South America, economists and analysts have said. 

Soybean futures for January delivery fell 5½¢ to $9.93 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up 70¢ to $291.50 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.56¢ to 44.95¢ a pound. 

Corn futures for December delivery were unchanged at $4.35¼ a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 4¾¢ to $5.58¾ a bushel, and Kansas City futures gained 4¢ to $5.56¼ a bushel. 

2. Speculators Boost Bullish Bets on Corn

Investors were as bullish on corn as they’ve been in almost two years and cut their net short positions, or bets on lower prices, in soybeans in the seven days that ended on Nov. 12, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Speculators held a net long position, or bets on higher prices, of 99,779 futures contracts in corn, the agency said. 

That’s up from only 3,035 contracts a week earlier and the largest bullish position since February 2023. 

Money managers were net short in soybeans by 39,701 futures contracts last week, down from 56,372 contracts the previous week. That marks the smallest bearish position in beans since Oct. 8, CFTC data show. 

In wheat, investors raised their net short positions in hard red winter futures to 26,181 contracts, up from 14,500 contracts the previous week and the largest bearish position since Sept. 3. 

Investors raised their bearish bets in soft red winter wheat to 52,753 futures contracts from 34,448 contracts the week prior, CFTC said. That’s the largest bearish position for the grain since Aug. 27, CFTC said in its report. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net short position means more are betting futures will decline.

3. Flood Watches Issued for Parts of Oklahoma, Texas

Flood watches remain in effect in parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

Flooding is expected due to excessive rainfall forecast for the region, the agency said. Flood watches will remain in effect until midnight tonight. 

Wind advisories also are in effect until 3 p.m. in much of Oklahoma and parts of north Texas, NWS said. 

Winds will be sustained from 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 50 mph expected, the agency said. 

Thunderstorms are possible in central Iowa this evening into the overnight hours. 

“Some storms could be strong in the south,” NWS said. “The possibility for a tornado or two can’t be ruled out, but the overall severe threat is low.”