3 Big Things Today, November 11, 2024

1. Wheat futures drop, soybeans higher overnight

Wheat futures plunged in overnight trading after the U.S. Department of Agriculture narrowly raised its outlook for global production and inventories. 

Domestic stockpiles at the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year that started on June 1 are now forecast at 815 million metric tons, up from a prior outlook for 812 million tons and the previous year’s 696 million tons, USDA said in a report on Friday. 

The agency also raised its outlook for global production slightly but also bumped its projection for use, resulting in ending stocks that were little changed month to month. 

Soybean futures, meanwhile, were higher overnight after the agency slashed its forecast for domestic ending stockpiles to 470 million metric tons from the October outlook for 550 million tons. 

Corn inventories at the end of the grain’s 2024-2025 marketing year that started on Sept. 1 are now forecast at 1.938 billion bushels from 1.999 billion a month earlier, USDA said. 

Wheat futures for December delivery dropped 10 1/4¢ to $5.62 1/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, and Kansas City futures gained lost 8 3/4¢ to $5.55 1/2 a bushel. 

Soybean futures for January delivery rose 6 1/2¢ to $10.36 3/4 a bushel. Soymeal was up $3.90 to $300.10 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.04¢ to 48.81¢ a pound. 

Corn futures for December delivery fell 3/4¢ to $4.30 1/4 a bushel.

2. Investors are bullish corn first time in over a year

Money managers turned bullish on corn for the first time in more than a year and lowered their net-shorts, or bets on lower prices, in soybeans last week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

Investors held a net-long position, or bets on higher prices, of 3,035 futures contracts in corn in the seven days that ended on Nov. 5, the agency said. 

That’s a shift from a net-short position of 35,508 contracts a week earlier and the first time investors have been bullish on corn futures since August 2023. 

Speculators reduced their bearish bets on soybeans, holding a net-short 56,372 futures contracts last week. That’s down from 61,870 contracts the week prior and the smallest such position in three weeks. 

In wheat, hedge funds and other large investment firms were mixed, raising their net-short positions to 14,500 hard-red futures contracts from 9,541 contracts the previous week. 

Money managers lowered their bearish bets on soft-red winter wheat futures to 34,448 contracts from 36,060 contracts the week prior, CFTC said in its report. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

3. Flood warnings remain in effect in Oklahoma

Weather maps are relatively quiet to start the week, though flood warnings and advisories remain in place in parts of Oklahoma due to excessive rain in recent days, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Several rivers are still overrunning their banks or topping flood states in parts of western Oklahoma, the agency said. 

More showers are possible for the area starting tomorrow and lasting into Wednesday as a weak cold front rolls through the region. 

“A stronger storm system will approach the area by late next weekend, with heavier rainfall with this system holding off until early next week,” NWS said.