3 Big Things Today, May 2, 2025

1. Wheat Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures were higher overnight on some technical buying and unfavorable weather in parts of the Canadian Prairies. 

Investors who were short the market, or had bet on lower prices, likely bought back contracts and booked profits after the front-month contract earlier this week dropped to the lowest level since August. 

Also giving prices a boost are tightening global inventories of the grain. 

Stockpiles at the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year are projected at 260.7 million metric tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

That’s down from the 269.1 million metric tons that was in storage a year earlier and 275.4 million tons the 2022–2023 marketing year. 

Rainfall this weekend in the Canadian Prairies will help crops but isn’t expected to do much to improve soil moisture, according to weather forecasters. 

Canada is expected to produce about 35 million metric tons of wheat in the 2024–2025 marketing year, up narrowly year-over-year, USDA data shows. 

Keeping a lid on prices is improving moisture conditions in parts of the southern Plains. 

About 37% of Kansas, the biggest producer of winter wheat, is suffering from drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s down from 64% a week earlier. 

Precipitation in the region has given hard-red winter crops a boost in the past couple of weeks. 

Wheat futures rose 5¾¢ to $5.36¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures added 7½¢ to $5.35 a bushel. 

Corn futures for July delivery were unchanged at $4.72¼ a bushel.

Soybean futures gained 4¢ to $10.54¼ a bushel. Soymeal was up $2.40 to $296.70 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.32¢ to 49.38¢ a pound.

2. Sales of Soybeans to Overseas Buyers Rise Weekly

Export sales of soybeans rose week to week while corn and wheat sales declined, according to data from the Ag Department. 

Soybean sales in the seven days that ended on April 24 totaled 428,200 metric tons, up 55% from the previous week and 27% from the prior four-week average, the agency said. 

China was the big buyer at 139,400 metric tons, followed by Germany at 70,000 tons, and the Netherlands at 57,100 tons. Mexico bought 44,800 tons and Indonesia was in for 38,200 tons. 

The total would’ve been higher but an unnamed country canceled orders for 47,600 tons.

Corn sales to overseas buyers fell 12% on a weekly basis and 13% from the average to 1.01 million metric tons, USDA said. 

Mexico purchased 451,400 tons, Colombia was in for 166,200 tons, Israel took 130,700 tons, South Korea bought 122,500 tons, and Vietnam purchased 103,000 tons. 

An unknown destination nixed shipments of 469,900 tons and Honduras canceled cargoes of 31,100 tons. 

Wheat sales were reported at 72,000 metric tons, down 24% from the average for this time of year, the government said. 

Thailand bought 58,000 tons, Nigeria was in for 39,000 tons, Ecuador purchased 36,200 tons, Colombia took 28,100 tons, and Brazil bought 27,000 tons. 

An unnamed country canceled orders for 166,400 tons and Vietnam nixed cargoes of 58,000 tons, USDA said in its report. 

3. Frost Expected to Form in Nebraska, Kansas

Frost advisories have been issued for counties in south-central Nebraska and northern Kansas, National Weather Service maps show.

Temperatures overnight tonight will fall into the low 30s, which could result in frost formation, the agency said. 

The amount of frost formation will depend on how low temperatures get, NWS said. If temperatures rise even slightly, frost will only form in low-lying areas. 

Storms are rumbling through eastern Oklahoma again this morning. Flash flood warnings are in effect along with a severe thunderstorm watch. 

“Numerous thunderstorms will continue across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning,” the agency said. “An isolated severe storm remains possible with large hail and locally strong winds the primary concerns.”