3 Big Things Today, March 31, 2025

1. Soybeans Slightly Higher, Grains Mixed Overnight

Soybeans were modestly higher in overnight trading and grains were mixed ahead of today’s prospective planting and quarterly grain stocks reports from the USDA. 

The USDA likely will forecast area planted with soybeans in the U.S. at 83.762 million acres, according to a Reuters poll. 

The government in February pegged soybean area at 84 million acres, and farmers last year planted just over 87 million acres with the oilseeds. 

Corn area will probably be seen by the USDA at 94.361 million acres, the survey said. The USDA in February forecast area sown with the grain at 94 million acres, and last year producers planted corn on 90.594 million acres. 

Wheat planting will be projected at 46.475 million acres, the Reuters poll said, down from the prior outlook for 47 million acres. Area planted with wheat a year earlier totaled slightly more than 46 million acres, according to data from the Ag Department. 

The USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report is also due to be released today at noon in Washington. 

Soybean stocks on March 1 will probably be pegged at 1.901 billion bushels, according to a separate Reuters poll, up from the 1.845 billion bushels that were in storage a year earlier. 

Corn inventories at the start of March likely totaled 8.151 billion bushels, down from the 8.352 billion that were in storage on the same date the previous year. 

Wheat stockpiles were forecast by analysts at 1.215 billion bushels, the survey said. That would be just above the 1.089 billion bushels that were in storage at the same point in 2024. 

Soybean futures for May delivery were up 4¾¢ to $10.27¾ a bushel. Soymeal added $3.20 to $296.70 a short ton, and soy oil fell 0.18¢ to 44.98¢ a pound.

Corn futures rose ¼¢ to $4.53½ a bushel. 

Wheat futures for May delivery were unchanged at $5.28¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures lost 5¼¢ to $5.46½ a bushel. 

2. Speculators Cut Bullish Bets on Corn

Investors cut their bullish bets on corn and increased their net-short positions, or bets on lower prices, in soybeans last week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

Money managers held a net-long position, or bets on higher prices, of 73,920 futures contracts in corn in the seven days that ended on March 25, the agency said.

That’s down from 104,430 contracts a week earlier, and the smallest bearish position since Dec. 3. 

Speculators held a net-short position of 33,821 soybean futures contracts, up from 17,984 contracts the previous week, and the largest bearish position since Dec. 24, the CFTC said. 

In wheat, hedge funds and other large investment firms were short by 44,541 contracts in hard-red winter futures, down narrowly from 45,698 contracts the week prior. 

Investors also held a net-short position of 90,137 contracts in soft-red winter wheat, the agency said. That’s up from 78,666 contracts a week earlier, and the largest such position since Jan. 28. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

3. Southern Plains Face Extremely Dry Conditions

Dry, windy weather is forecast for a large chunk of the southern Plains, including counties in western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, according to National Weather Service (NWS) maps. 

Winds in southwestern Kansas will be sustained from 20–30 mph and gust up to 50 mph, the agency said. 

Relative humidity will drop to around 13%. 

Winds in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will range from 25–35 mph and gust up to 55 mph, NWS said. 

Some areas may see wind gusts up to 65 mph. 

“A fire growth pattern will continue through Wednesday with breezy to windy conditions and very low humidity values each afternoon,” the NWS said.