3 Big Things Today, March 21, 2025

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Little Changed Overnight

Soybean and grain futures were little changed overnight amid uncertainty about the ongoing trade war and mixed weather forecasts globally. 

Tariffs on foreign goods entering the U.S. are scheduled to take effect on April 2 as each country will receive a number representing their own tariffs, the White House has said. That number will be used to determine what, if any, tariffs will be placed on products they plan to ship to the U.S. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico and a 20% tariff on Chinese goods. Canada, Mexico and China are the U.S.’s biggest trading partners. 

All three countries have announced or implemented retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. 

U.S. growth is now forecast at 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, down from prior forecasts for 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, said the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 

Canada’s growth is now seen at 0.7% this year and next, down from a previous outlook for 2% for both years, and Mexico will contract 1.3% this year and shrink 0.6% in 2026 vs. prior forecasts for 1.2% and 1.6% growth, respectively. 

Buoying prices overnight, however, are mixed weather forecasts. 

At least 35% to 40% of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is too dry, Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients. 

Stress will narrow “briefly” to about a quarter of the country’s corn area, but dryness will again expand in the six- to 15-day outlook, the forecaster said. 

Moisture deficits are building in the U.S. southern Plains where hard-red winter wheat is growing, though soft-red winter wheat in the eastern Midwest will see showers in the next 10 days that will reduce dryness in the region, CWG said. 

Soybeans for May delivery were down 1/4¢ to $10.12 3/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal rose 70¢ to $297.80 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.19¢ to 42.52¢ a pound.

Corn futures fell 1¢ to $4.68 a bushel. 

Wheat futures for May delivery added 1 1/4¢ to $5.58 1/2 a bushel, while Kansas City futures rose 3/4¢ to $5.87 1/4 a bushel. 

2. U.S. Red Meat Production Declines Year Over Year

Red meat output in the U.S. dropped year over year in February, according to data from the Ag Department. 

Production last month totaled 4.23 billion pounds, down 7% from the same month last year, the agency said.

Beef output was reported at 2.02 billion pounds, also a decline of 7% on an annual basis. 

About 2.32 million head of cattle were slaughtered in February, down 11% year over year, USDA said. Average live weights, however, were up 48 pounds to 1,432 pounds. 

Pork production totaled 2.2 billion pounds, also down 7% from February 2024. 

Hog slaughter was down 7% to 10.2 million head, and average live weight was up a pound to 291 pounds, the government said. 

For the first two months of the year, red meat production totaled 9.12 billion pounds, a 2% year-on-year decline. 

Beef production in January and February was down 1% and pork output dropped 3% from last year, USDA said in its report. 

3. Dry Weather Forecast From Texas to Illinois

Dry weather is forecast for several states including Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Winds will be sustained from 15 to 20 mph this afternoon in central and eastern Oklahoma and gust up to 40 mph, the agency said. 

Relative humidity will drop as low as 10%. 

In eastern Missouri and counties in western Illinois, winds are forecast to gust up to 45 mph, NWS said. 

“These conditions are conducive for the rapid spread and growth of uncontrolled wildfires,” the agency said. 

Red-flag warnings have also been issued for much of central and western Nebraska. 

Winds will range from 20 to 30 mph and gust up to 45 mph. Relative humidity is expected to fall to around 15%, NWS said.