3 Big Things Today, March 11, 2025

1. Corn, Soybeans Gain in Overnight Trading

Corn and soybean futures were higher in overnight trading on expectations that the U.S. Department of Agriculture will lower its outlook for inventories of both commodities in a monthly supply and demand report today. 

USDA will likely cut its forecast for ending stockpiles of corn in the 2024/2025 marketing year that ends on Aug. 31 to 1.516 billion bushels, according to a survey of analysts by Reuters. 

That’s down from the government’s February projection of 1.54 billion bushels. 

Soybean stocks at the end of the marketing year probably will be pegged at 379 million bushels, the survey said. 

The agency last month forecast soybean inventories at 380 million bushels. 

Wheat futures were capped in overnight trading as stockpiles at the end of the grain’s marketing year on May 31 will likely be seen at 797 million bushels, according to the Reuters poll, up from last month’s outlook for 794 million bushels. 

USDA is scheduled to release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at noon in Washington. 

The agency’s outlook for South American production of corn and soybeans likely will be little changed month over month. 

Brazil corn output will probably be pegged by USDA at 126.07 million metric tons, the survey said, versus the 126 million tons forecast a month earlier. 

Soybean production in the South American country, the world’s largest exporter of the oilseeds, will likely be forecast at 169.18 million metric tons, up from the prior outlook for 169 million tons. 

Corn growers in Argentina will likely produce 49 million metric tons of the grain, the Reuters poll said. That’d be down from the previous projection of 50 million tons. 

Argentina soybean production is expected at 48.88 million metric tons, the survey said, up slightly from last month’s forecast for 49 million tons. 

Corn futures rose 2½¢ to $4.69 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Soybeans for May delivery added 4¼¢ to $10.18¼ a bushel. Soymeal was up 40¢ to $302.70 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.26¢ to 42.52¢ a pound.

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 2¾¢ to $5.59¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures gained lost 2¾¢ to $5.75¾ a bushel. 

2. Weekly Wheat Export Inspections Decline

Export inspections of wheat plunged week to week while corn and bean assessments improved, according to data from the Ag Department. 

Inspections of wheat in the seven days that ended on March 6 were reported at 216,173 metric tons, the agency said. 

That’s down from 390,591 tons the previous week and the 485,661 tons examined during the same week a year earlier. 

Corn inspections, meanwhile, rose to 1.82 million metric tons from 1.35 million tons a week earlier and 1.17 million tons in the same week last year, USDA said. 

Soybean assessments came in at 844,218 metric tons, up from 699,958 tons the week prior and 785,367 tons at the same point in 2024. 

Since the start of the grain’s marketing year on June 1, USDA has inspected 15.8 million metric tons of wheat for offshore delivery, government data show. That’s up from 13.5 million tons during the same timeframe last year. 

Corn inspections since the start of the current year on Sept. 1 now stand at 29.1 million metric tons, up from 21.9 million tons in the same period a year earlier, the agency said. 

Inspectors have processed 38.4 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for export, up from 35.1 million tons at this point a year ago, USDA said in its report. 

3. Red Flag Warnings Issued for West Texas

Red flag warnings have been issued for parts of West Texas amid extremely dry weather, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Winds will be sustained from 15–20 mph and gust up to 30 mph this afternoon and again tomorrow, the agency said. 

Relative humidity will drop as low as 5% this afternoon and 10% tomorrow. 

Potentially dangerous fire weather is also forecast for parts of eastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas starting tomorrow. The dry conditions are also expected over the weekend. 

On Friday, however, a storm system will bring intense winds to the region. Gusts of more than 60 mph are forecast for the area creating dangerous travel conditions. Rain and snow will likely accompany the winds on Friday and Friday night, NWS said.