3 Big Things Today, June 13, 2025

1. Wheat Futures Rise as USDA Raises Export Outlook

Wheat futures were higher in overnight trading after the USDA raised its forecast for exports of the grain in the 2025/2026 season that started on June 1. 

Exporters will ship 825 million bushels of the grain in the current marketing year, the agency said in a monthly supply and demand report yesterday. 

That’s up from a previous outlook for 800 million and the 820 million bushels that were shipped in the previous year. 

Total use including exports are now forecast at 1.984 billion bushels, up from the prior forecast for 1.959 billion and the previous year’s 1.977 billion, USDA said. 

Domestic inventories of wheat are now seen at 898 million bushels, down from the May projection of 923 million bushels. 

Global ending stockpiles of wheat likely will total 262.8 million metric tons, the agency said yesterday, down from the prior outlook for 265.7 million tons and well behind the 265.1 million tons forecast in a poll conducted by Reuters. 

Corn futures were lower after USDA left its balance sheet for the grain mostly unchanged. 

Production in the 2025-2026 year that starts on Sept. 1 is still seen at 15.82 billion bushels on yield of 181 bushels an acre. Exports are again pegged at 2.675 billion bushels. 

The government reduced its outlook for ending stocks to 1.75 billion bushels from 1.8 billion in May amid smaller carryover from the previous marketing year. Analysts in the Reuters survey were expecting a smaller decrease to 1.792 billion bushels. 

Wheat futures for July delivery gained 3¾¢ to $5.30¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, and Kansas City futures were up 3¢ to $5.25¾ a bushel. 

Corn delivery fell 3¼¢ to $4.35¼ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for July rose 3¼¢ to $10.45½ a bushel. Soymeal was down $2 to $292.50 a short ton and soy oil futures gained 0.74¢ to 48.35¢ a pound. 

2. Soybean Sales Drop to Marketing-Year Low

Soybean sales last week plunged to the lowest since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, the USDA said in a weekly report. 

Sales of the oilseeds totaled 61,400 metric tons, down 68% from the previous week and 74% from the prior four-week average, USDA said. That’s the least since the 2024/2025 season started at the beginning of September.

Indonesia bought 69,400 metric tons, Egypt was in for 58,500 tons, the Netherlands took 57,100 tons, Algeria purchased 42,000 tons, and Japan bought 41,100 tons. 

The total would’ve been higher but an unnamed country canceled sales of 260,700 tons. 

Soybean exports, however, rose 47% week over week to 453,400 tons, USDA said. 

Corn sales to overseas buyers fell, albeit less drastically, than beans in the week through June 5. 

Sales of U.S. corn were reported at 791,300 metric tons, down 16% weekly and 33% from the average for this time of year, the agency said. 

Japan was the big buyer at 376,200 tons, followed by Mexico at 164,400 tons and Colombia at 142,500 tons. South Korea was in for 69,000 tons and Egypt purchased 56,400 tons from U.S. suppliers. 

Still, an unnamed country canceled cargoes of 164,600 tons and Panama nixed shipments of 40,000 tons. 

Wheat sales in the first five days of the 2025-2026 marketing year that started on June 1 totaled 388,900 metric tons. 

Mexico purchased 97,200 tons, Indonesia bought 70,000 tons, Japan took 60,200 tons, Thailand was in for 59,900 tons, and an unknown destination purchased 58,200 tons. 

U.S. wheat exports totaled 1.69 million tons, up 3% week to week, USDA said in its report. 

3. Storms Expected in Much of Iowa Into the Weekend

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for much of western and central Iowa into this evening, according to National Weather Service reports. 

Severe weather is possible in northern Iowa as hail and gusty winds in the forecast. 

The storms may continue into the weekend in the area, though the probability of severe weather tomorrow is low. 

“Additional thunderstorm chances are then forecast from Saturday night into next week,” NWS said. “The severe weather chances during that timeframe will be assessed in the coming days.” 

Strong storms are expected in parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, the agency said. 

Wind and hail are the main threats associated with the storms, though “widespread” coverage isn’t expected at this time, NWS said.