3 Big Things Today, July 31, 2025

1. Grains, Soybeans Little Changed in Overnight Trading

Grain and soybean futures were again little changed in overnight trading, as investors weigh optimism over trade talks with China against wet weather in the Corn Belt. 

U.S. and Chinese officials concluded talks in Stockholm yesterday without reaching an agreement to end the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. 

Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that the meetings were “constructive” and “productive.” They were optimistic that a possible deal could be reached to avoid implementation of tariffs Aug. 12.

The South China Morning Post reported that Chinese officials had indicated the tariff truce between the countries would be extended for another 90 days. But Bessent told reporters he would need sign-off from President Donald Trump to finalize any decisions. 

Trump on Wednesday announced tariffs of 15% on South Korean goods and a 25% on products from India. 

Trump has threatened to impose blanket levies Aug. 1 for countries with which the U.S. has not reached bilateral agreement. The deadline leaves traders uncertain about which direction the White House will take. 

Weighing on prices this morning is more favorable weather in the Corn Belt. 

Rainfall is forecast for much of eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa this afternoon and tomorrow, and heat indexes in parts of several states, including Illinois and Indiana, declined after a week of extremely hot weather. 

Corn futures for December delivery fell ¼¢ to $4.12 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Wheat for September delivery rose ½¢ to $5.24¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures were up 3¼¢ to $5.25¼ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for November delivery fell ¾¢ to $9.95 a bushel. Soymeal was down 20¢ to $274.30 a short ton, and soybean oil dropped 0.52¢ to 55.59¢ a pound.

2. Ethanol Production Rises to Six-Week High

Ethanol output rose to the highest level in six weeks and inventories jumped in the seven days that ended July 25, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). 

Production surged to an average of 1.096 million barrels a day, up from 1.078 million a week earlier, the agency said. That’s the highest since June 13. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output averaged 1.04 million barrels per day, up from 1.026 million the week prior. 

East Coast output rose to 12,000 barrels from 9,000 barrels, and Rocky Mountain production was up to 11,000 barrels from 10,000 the previous week, the EIA said. Gulf Coast production was up by a thousand barrels to an average of 25,000 barrels a day. 

West Coast output, meanwhile, was unchanged for a third straight week at 9,000 barrels per day. 

Ethanol stockpiles July 25 totaled 24,716 million barrels, the agency said. That’s up from 24.444 million a week earlier and the highest level since April 18. 

3. Heat Shrinks as Parts of Missouri, Arkansas Stay Hot

The heat wave hitting parts of Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri has moved out, though extreme heat warnings and heat advisories remain in effect in parts of southeastern Oklahoma, much of Arkansas, and counties in Tennessee and Mississippi, according to National Weather Service (NWS) maps. 

Heat indexes in southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana will reach as high as 120°F this afternoon, the agency said. 

Rainfall is expected in areas of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight, with some storms potentially turning severe, the NWS said. 

Damaging winds and hail are the main hazards associated with the storm.