3 Big Things Today, January 10, 2025

1. Soybeans rise, grains slightly higher overnight

Soybean futures gained overnight while grains were modestly higher as investors square positions ahead of today’s monthly supply and demand reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

The Ag Department likely will reduce its outlook for corn and bean stockpiles in its monthly supply and demand report scheduled for today. 

The agency will probably project corn inventories at the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year on Aug. 31 at 1.675 billion bushels in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, according to a Reuters poll. 

USDA last month forecast ending stocks at 1.738 billion bushels. 

Soybean inventories will likely be seen by the government at 457 million bushels, down from the previous outlook for 470 million bushels, the poll said. 

The government is expected to project wheat stockpiles at the end of the grain’s marketing year on May 31 at 799 million bushels, the survey said. 

USDA in December forecast ending stocks at 795 million bushels. 

Traders also are keeping an eye on demand for U.S. agricultural products, which has been robust so far in the current marketing year. 

Overseas buyers have committed to buy 40.2 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, according to data from the Department of Agriculture. That’s up 11% from the same timeframe last year. 

Corn sales since the beginning of September are now at 38.8 million metric tons, a 30% year-over-year increase. 

Wheat sales since the start of the grain’s marketing year on June 1 stand at 17.1 million metric tons, an 11% increase from the same period a year earlier, USDA said. 

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 7¢ to $10.06 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was unchanged at $299.30 a short ton and soy oil gained 1.3¢ to 44.06¢ a pound.

March corn was down 1 1/2¢ to $4.57 1/2 a bushel. 

Wheat futures for March delivery rose 3/4¢ to $5.34 3/4 a bushel, while Kansas City futures lost 1 1/2¢ to $5.51 3/4 a bushel. 

2. Ukraine ag exports through Jan. 10 surge 14%

Grain exports from Ukraine so far in the 2024-2025 marketing year have surged from the same timeframe last year, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. 

Shipments of grains and pulses through Jan. 10 totaled 22.6 million metric tons, the agency said. That’s a 14% year-over-year increase. 

Wheat shipments were reported at 10.1 million tons, up 27% from the same period a year ago, the ministry said. 

Corn exports, however, declined slightly, falling 3.6% from the previous year to 10.2 million metric tons. 

Barley shipments came in at 1.98 million tons and rye exports totaled 10,800 tons, the agency said. 

Ukraine, which has been under attack by Russian forces for almost three years, has shipped 170.8 million metric tons of agricultural products since March 2022. 

Corn shipments have led the way at 70.4 million tons, followed by wheat at 44.6 million tons and sunflower oil at 14.7 million tons, the ministry said. 

The beleaguered nation also has shipped oil and cake, rapeseed, soybeans, barley, sunflower seeds and soybean oil. 

3. Winter advisories, warnings issued for eastern U.S. 

Weather maps are lit up this morning as winter weather is expected for much of the eastern half of the U.S. 

Winter weather advisories have been issued from central Oklahoma east to the Atlantic Seaboard, according to the National Weather Service. 

Winter storm warnings will take effect or are already in place from east Texas to the East Coast. 

In southern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of snow are expected today, creating hazardous road conditions, NWS said in a report early this morning. 

As much as 7 inches of snow are forecast for parts of southern Illinois and Indiana, the agency said. 

“Downed tree limbs and additional power outages will be possible in areas that still have significant icing from last weekend’s winter storm,” NWS said.