3 Big Things Today, Jan. 21, 2025

1. Soybeans, Grains Surge in Overnight Trading

Soybean and grain futures surged in overnight trading on concerns about production in the U.S. and South America. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture earlier this month lowered its forecast for domestic soybean output to 4.366 billion bushels on yield of 50.7 bushels an acre. 

That’s down from the December forecast for 4.461 billion bushels on yield of 51.7 bushels an acre, government data show. 

Stockpiles at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year on Aug. 31 are now seen at 380 million bushels versus the previous outlook for 470 million bushels, USDA said. 

Also giving prices a boost are concerns about crops in Argentina. 

Weekend rains in the South American country were disappointing, and drier weather is expected in the next week, according to forecasters. Hot weather is expected in some growing areas later this week. 

Argentina is expected to produce 52 million metric tons of soybeans this year, up from 48.2 million tons a year earlier. 

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 14½¢ to $10.48½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal gained $4.20 to $301.40 a short ton and soy oil lost 0.12¢ to 45.57¢ a pound. 

Corn futures added 1¾¢ to $4.86 a bushel. 

Wheat for March delivery jumped 6¢ to $5.44¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures gained 5¢ to $5.53½ a bushel. 

2. Trump Issues Memorandum on Tariffs

President Donald Trump didn’t impose sweeping tariffs on the first day of his second term in office, instead issuing a memorandum instructing the secretaries of Treasury, Commerce, and Homeland Security to investigate trade policies.

“(The departments) shall investigate the causes of our country’s large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods, as well as the economy, and national security implications and risks resulting from such deficits, and recommend appropriate measures, such as global supplemental tariff or other policies, to remedy such deficits,” Trump said in a statement. 

Still, he continued to threaten Mexico and Canada, the largest purchasers of U.S. goods, saying he would slap a 25% tariff on all items from the countries on Feb. 1. 

Trump has said he would impose tariffs on foreign countries including China, the world’s biggest importer of soybeans. Economists and industry organizations have said countries would impose retaliatory tariffs, which would hurt the U.S. and global economies. 

The U.S. Trade Representative will review all trade agreements and recommend changes to ensure “advantageous concessions” in accords with other countries, according to the memorandum. 

3. Extreme Cold Continues in Much of the U.S. 

Extremely cold weather will again prevail in much of the U.S. as warnings persist from New Mexico to Maine and from the Canadian border to the Mexican border, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Wind chills in northern Nebraska are forecast to drop to as low as minus-30° Fahrenheit, the agency said. Frostbite could occur in less than 10 minutes on exposed skin. 

In southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, wind chills will range from 30° below to 35° below zero, NWS said. 

Winter storm warnings have been issued for almost the entirety of the U.S. Gulf Coast. The warnings stretch from south Texas through several states into South Carolina. 

As much as 4 inches of snow are expected along the Texas-Louisiana border this morning, the agency said.