3 Big Things Today, Jan. 17, 2025

1. Soybean, Corn Futures Rise Slightly Overnight

Soybean and corn futures were modestly higher in overnight trading amid a tighter supply outlook. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture last week cut its forecasts for both bean and corn output in the 2024/2025 marketing year that ends on Aug. 31. 

Soybean production is now projected at 4.366 billion bushels on yield of 50.7 bushels an acre, down from a previous outlook for 4.461 billion bushels and yield of 51.7 bushels an acre, according to government data. 

Corn production is now seen at 14.867 billion bushels on yield of 179.3 bushels an acre versus the December forecast for 15.143 billion bushels on yield of 183.1 bushels an acre, USDA said. 

Wheat futures were mixed overnight as futures were underpinned by potentially adverse conditions in the U.S. southern Plains. 

Winterkill is “likely” in central Kansas and Nebraska where hard-red winter wheat is overwintering this weekend and early next week even as snow will increase protection in some areas, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar. 

Winterkill also will be possible in northwestern areas of the eastern Midwest where soft red winter varieties are planted, he said. Still, snow cover in eastern and central parts of the region will offer some protection for wheat. 

Soybeans for March delivery rose 3½¢ to $10.22½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal rose a dime to $294.50 a short ton and soy oil added 0.4¢ to 45.43¢ a pound.

Corn futures were up 1¼¢ to $4.75¾ a bushel. 

Wheat futures for March delivery fell 1¼¢ to $5.36¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures rose ¼¢ to $5.48½ a bushel. 

2. Export Sales of Grains, Soybeans Surge

Sales of grains and beans to overseas buyers jumped in the seven days that ended on Jan. 9, according to the Ag Department. 

Corn sales for export surged to 1.02 million metric tons from 445,000 tons the previous week, which was shortened by New Year’s Day. That’s still unchanged from the prior four-week average. 

Japan was the big buyer at 281,300 metric tons, followed by South Korea at 281,200 tons, and Mexico at 234,400 tons, the agency said. Colombia bought 172,100 tons and Spain was in for 148,400 tons. 

The total would’ve been higher but an unnamed country canceled orders for 409,400 tons and Indonesia nixed shipments of 68,000 tons. 

Exports of U.S. corn for the week totaled 1.48 million tons, up 72% weekly and the highest since the marketing year started on Sept. 1, USDA said. 

Wheat sales were reported at 513,400 metric tons, up from 111,300 tons the week prior. That’s also up 55% from the average for this time of year. 

South Korea took 131,800 tons from U.S. suppliers, Taiwan was in for 114,700 tons, an unknown destination purchased 55,800 tons, Mexico bought 43,400 tons, and Egypt was in for 35,000 tons. 

Exports for the week, meanwhile, dropped 53% to 196,500 tons. 

Soybean sales almost doubled to 569,100 metric tons from 288,700 tons the previous week, USDA said. Still, that was down 27% from the average. 

China bought 213,900 metric tons, Bangladesh was in for 179,200 tons, Mexico bought 124,900 tons, and Japan took 112,200 tons of U.S. soybeans, the agency said. 

An unnamed country canceled cargoes of 648,100 tons. 

Exports for the week fell 2% to 1.48 million metric tons, USDA said in its report. 

3. Cold, Windy Weather Expected in the Northern U.S. 

Winter weather advisories have been issued for eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Up to an inch of snow is expected along with winds gusting up to 55 mph, the agency said. 

Roads are expected to be slick, and blowing snow may “significantly” reduce visibility, NWS said in a report early this morning. The intense winds could knock down trees and power lines. 

Wind advisories will take effect this morning in much of North Dakota and South Dakota and last throughout the day. 

Winds in central South Dakota will be sustained from 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up to 50 mph expected. 

“Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result,” NWS said.