3 Big Things Today, February 11, 2025

1. Grain, soybean futures moderately higher overnight

Grain and soybean futures were modestly higher in overnight trading ahead of today’s supply and demand reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

The government is expected to reduce its forecast for U.S. corn and bean ending stocks while raising its outlook for wheat inventories in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report due out at noon in Washington. 

Corn stockpiles at the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year likely will be projected at 1.526 billion bushels and soybean inventories at 374 million bushels, according to a Reuters poll. That would be down from the previous month’s forecasts for 1.54 billion and 380 bushels, respectively. 

Wheat inventories probably will be projected at 799 million bushels, the survey said, up slightly from the prior outlook for 798 million bushels. 

Underpinning wheat futures, however, is unfavorable weather in U.S. and Black Sea growing areas. 

Dry weather prevailed this past weekend and “spotty” winterkill damage is possible in western Nebraska, though increased snow coverage in the central Plains will give a blanket of protection for overwintering plants, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar. 

In the Black Sea region, snow cover is “limited” in parts of Ukraine and Russia and cold temperatures are expected next week, the forecaster said. That could increase the chances of winterkill. 

Wheat futures for March delivery added 3 1/2¢ to $5.83 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures were up 2 3/4¢ to $5.99 1/2 a bushel. 

Corn futures added 1 1/4¢ to $4.92 3/4 a bushel. 

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 4 1/4¢ to $10.53 3/4 a bushel. Soymeal gained $1.80 to $302.30 a short ton and soy oil fell 0.01¢ to 45.72¢ a pound. 

2. Weekly export inspections of corn, wheat rise

Inspections of corn and wheat for offshore delivery rose week to week while soybean assessments declined, according to the Ag Department. 

Corn inspections in the seven days that ended on Feb. 6 rose to 1.33 million metric tons, the agency said. 

That’s up from 1.25 million tons a week earlier and well ahead of the 892,457 tons assessed during the same week last year.

Examinations of wheat for overseas delivery rose to 536,217 tons versus 253,137 tons the week prior. The total was also higher than the 407,533 tons examined at the same point a year ago. 

Soybean inspections, meanwhile, fell to 1.04 million metric tons from 1.14 million the previous week and 1.34 million tons during the same week a year earlier, USDA said. 

Since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, the agency has inspected 23.1 million metric tons of corn for export, up from 17.2 million during the same timeframe the previous year. 

Examinations of soybeans since the beginning of September now stand at 35.2 million tons, up from 30.8 million at the same point in 2024, the government said. 

Wheat inspections since the start of the marketing year on June 1 are at 14.6 million tons, up from 11.7 million in the same period last year, USDA said in its report. 

3. Extreme cold expected in the northern Plains

Winter storm warnings have been issued for a large swath of land stretching from about the Colorado-Kansas border east into north-central Illinois, according to National Weather Service maps. 

In central Kansas, as much as 8 inches of snow are possible starting this evening and lasting all day tomorrow, the agency said. 

From 5 to 8 inches of snow are forecast for parts of central and southern Iowa starting tomorrow morning and lasting through early Thursday morning.

Extreme cold is forecast for the northern half of Montana and much of North Dakota, NWS said.

Wind chills in central North Dakota will fall to a life-threatening minus-55 degrees Fahrenheit. Frostbite could form on exposed skin in as little as five minutes at those temperatures, the agency said.