3 Big Things Today, December 16, 2024

1. Wheat Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures were higher in overnight trading amid production woes in Russia. 

Production in Russia in the 2024/2025 marketing year was forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 81.5 million metric tons last week. 

That would be, if realized, down from 91.5 million metric tons a year earlier. 

Adverse weather including frost at the beginning of the growing season and dry weather during critical growth stages curbed output. 

Exports from the country are projected by USDA to fall to 47 million metric tons this year from 55.5 million a year earlier. 

U.S. production, meanwhile, is forecast at 53.7 million metric tons, up from 49.1 million metric tons the previous year, the agency said. 

Exports will increase to 23.1 million metric tons from 19.2 million the year prior, USDA said. 

Wheat futures for March delivery rose 3¾¢ to $5.56 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures gained 6¢ to $5.63 a bushel. 

Corn futures for March delivery added 1¾¢ to $4.43¾ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for January delivery rose 3¾¢ to $9.92 a bushel. Soymeal gained $4.60 to $290.80 a short ton and soybean oil was down 0.95¢ to 41.66¢ a pound. 

2. Investors Push Bullish Corn Bets Near Two-Year High

Speculative investors increased their net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in corn futures to the highest level in just under two years, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

Money managers held a net 165,572 futures contracts in corn in the seven days that ended on Dec. 10, the agency said. 

That’s up from 73,239 contracts a week earlier and the largest such position since February 2023. 

Investors slashed their net short positions, or bets on lower prices, in soybeans to 30,594 futures contracts last week, down from 45,460 seven days earlier. That’s the smallest bearish position for beans since late May. 

In wheat, speculators were bearish on hard red winter futures by 36,491 futures contracts, down from 39,515 a week earlier, CFTC said. 

Speculators were net short in soft red winter futures by 68,461 contracts, down from 70,961 contracts the week prior, the government said in its report. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline. 

3. Intense Winds Expected for Parts of South Dakota

Wind advisories have been issued for much of western and southern South Dakota for this morning and early afternoon, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Winds will be sustained from 20 to 30 mph and gust up to 50 mph in parts of northwestern, south central and southwestern South Dakota, the agency said. 

Travel will be difficult, especially in high profile vehicles, and the wind may result in blowing dust and reduced visibility. 

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to roll across parts of extreme southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning, NWS said. Lightning and minor flooding are the biggest concerns associated with the storms. 

More rain is forecast for the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the agency said.