3 Big Things Today, December 12, 2024

1. Corn, Soybeans Little Changed in Overnight Trading

Grain and soybean futures were little changed in overnight trading as investors weigh corn ending stocks that came in lower than expected against improving weather in parts of South America. 

Corn inventories in the 2024/2025 marketing year that ends on Aug. 31 will likely total 1.738 billion bushels, up from a previous outlook for 1.938 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its monthly supply and demand report on Tuesday. 

Analysts polled by Reuters were looking for a much more modest decline to 1.906 billion bushels. 

Weighing on prices, however, is expectations for weather improvements in Brazil’s state of Parana. 

Rainfall in the southern state is forecast to be close to normal for the next 10 days, easing flooding in the region, Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients. 

“Recent flooded soy areas in Parana (and) southeast Paraguay slowly east (in the) next two weeks,” the forecaster said. 

About 1–3 inches of precipitation are expected in the area in the next 10 days. 

Corn futures for March delivery fell 1¢ to $4.46½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Wheat futures for March delivery rose ½¢ to $5.63¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures were down ¾¢ to $5.66½ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for January delivery rose ½¢ to $9.96 a bushel. Soymeal fell 30¢ to $290.80 a short ton and soybean oil was up 0.08¢ to 42.52¢ a pound. 

2. Weekly Ethanol Production Improves, EIA Says 

Ethanol output rose week to week while inventories declined, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Production increased to an average of 1.078 million barrels a day in the week through Dec. 6, the agency said in a report. 

That’s up from 1.07 million barrels a day, on average, the previous week. 

Ethanol production in the Midwest rose narrowly to 1.015 million barrels a day, up from 1.014 million barrels the week prior, EIA said. 

The Gulf Coast saw the biggest weekly gain, jumping to an average of 29,000 barrels a day from 22,000 barrels. 

That was the entirety of the gains as East Coast production was unchanged at 12,000 barrels a day for the fourth straight week, the agency said. 

Rocky Mountain output was down 1,000 barrels to 14,000 a day, on average, and West Coast production declined to 9,000 barrels from 10,000 a day a week earlier, the government said. 

Ethanol inventories in the week through Dec. 6, meanwhile, fell to 22.648 million barrels from 23.003 million the previous week. 

That’s the lowest level in three weeks, EIA said in its report. 

3. Winter Weather Forecast in Iowa, Illinois

Cold, wintry weather is expected in much of central Iowa into the weekend, according to the National Weather Service. 

Wind chills will drop into the single digits in central Iowa and below zero in northern counties, the agency said. Only small amounts of snow are in the forecast. 

“Another round of light snow or flurries is likely this morning into the early afternoon, mainly across central Iowa,” NWS said. “Snowfall amounts are expected to be less than one inch with minor travel impacts possible.” 

More winter weather is forecast Friday and Saturday as freezing drizzle, and freezing rain are possible. 

In central Illinois, a band of light snow is possible and wind chills will be around zero, the agency said. 

Freezing rain is forecast for late Friday and early Saturday, which will create slippery conditions, NWS said.