3 Big Things Today, December 11, 2024

1. Corn Futures Rise Slightly in Overnight Trading

Corn futures were modestly higher in overnight trading after the U.S. Department of Agriculture slashed its outlook for ending stocks. 

Inventories at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year on Aug. 31 are now forecast at 1.738 billion bushels, down from a previous outlook for 1.938 billion, USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. 

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a much more modest decline to 1.906 billion bushels. 

Increased forecasts for food, seed and industrial use, ethanol production and exports all led to the reduced outlook for inventories, government data show. 

Exports are now projected at 2.475 billion bushels, up from the November forecast for 2.325 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is now seen at 5.5 billion bushels, up from 5.45 billion a month earlier. 

Soybean inventories at the end of the marketing year are now pegged at 470 million bushels, unchanged month to month and just above the 469 million bushels forecast by analysts in the Reuters poll. 

Wheat stockpiles on May 31, the end of the grain’s 2024/2025 season, likely will come in at 795 million bushels, UDSA said. That’s down from the previous outlook for 815 million bushels. Analysts were expecting 814 million bushels. 

Corn futures for March delivery rose 1¼¢ to $4.50¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Wheat futures for March delivery added 1¼¢ to $5.63 a bushel, while Kansas City futures were up 1¢ to $5.66¾ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for January delivery fell 1¾¢ to $9.93 a bushel. Soymeal added 80¢ to $292.80 a short ton and soybean oil was down 0.26¢ to 42.46¢ a pound. 

2. U.S. Beef Production to Fall on Mexico Restrictions

Beef production was forecast to plunge in 2025 amid restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico, USDA said in its WASDE report. 

Mexico’s chief veterinary officer informed the U.S. on Nov. 22 that a case of new world screwworm were found in cattle in southern Mexico. That led to the U.S. restricting imports of livestock into the U.S. from Mexico, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) said last week. 

Beef output in the U.S. is now forecast to fall 5.1% year over year to 25.7 billion pounds next year, the government said in yesterday’s WASDE report. That’s also lower than the November outlook of 26.3 million pounds. 

Reduced imports from Mexico will lead to lower feedlot placement throughout 2025 and curb beef output, especially in the second half of the year, USDA said. 

“While the screwworm outbreak could end sooner than expected and higher net imports are providing a partial offset, we see increased risk of higher than expected beef costs in 2025,” Truist Securities analysts said in a note to clients. 

The firm also noted that USDA’s initial estimates on beef costs have undershot actual prices by almost 14% in the past four years. 

3. Snow, Cold Forecast for Illinois, Indiana

Snow showers are expected to move across central Illinois this afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.

Visibility will be reduced to less than a half mile in some locations and winds will gust up to 35 mph, the agency said.

“The worst conditions are expected from around midday into late this afternoon, though the snow threat will end from west to east as the afternoon progresses,” NWS said. 

Temperatures will fall into the low 20s so any melting snow likely will freeze and create slippery roads. 

Next door in central Indiana, winds will peak at around 40 mph, resulting in “drastically reduced visibilities” amid snow squalls, the agency said. Wind chill values will fall into the single digits late tonight.