3 Big Things Today, Dec. 3, 2025

1. Corn Futures Lower, Soybeans Higher Overnight

Corn futures declined, soybeans were modestly higher and wheat was little changed overnight as traders keep an eye on geopolitical events and export data. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea after two Ukrainian naval drones hit tankers headed to Russian ports. 

That may influence shipments of agricultural products including corn and wheat leaving several ports in Ukraine including the facility in Odesa. 

Wheat futures were underpinned overnight on the news, though increased production in Australia may be keeping a lid on prices. 

Australian wheat production will rise to 35.6 million metric tons in the 2025-2026 marketing year, up from a previous outlook for 33.8 million tons, according to research from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). 

That’s up 4% year over year and 29% above the prior 10-year average, the agency said. 

Soybeans were higher overnight amid optimism that China will attempt to meet an obligation laid out by the White House to buy 12 million metric tons of the oilseeds from U.S. suppliers. 

Multiple traders told Bloomberg that China is expected in increase purchases of U.S. soybeans in a bid to meet the goal. State-owned importers will buy more, which will help the Asian country meet reported commitments made in a trade deal signed by the U.S. and China at the end of October, the report said. 

Beijing said it would buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and then another 25 million metric tons in each of the next three years, the White House said after presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping signed a long-awaited agreement. 

Corn futures for March delivery fell 2 1/2¢ to $4.47 1/2 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Wheat futures lost 1¢ to $5.39 a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped 2¢ to $5.30 1/2 a bushel. 

Soybean futures for January delivery gained 2 1/2¢ to $11.27 1/4 a bushel. Soy meal was up 90¢ to $312.50 a short ton and soy oil fell 0.23¢ to 52.45¢ a pound. 

2. Speculators Cut Corn Net Shorts Through Oct. 21

Investors cut their bearish bets on corn while raising their net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in soybeans in the week that ended on Oct. 21, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

A report released yesterday was the latest in a series as CFTC plays catchup on its weekly commitment of traders reports after the government shutdown. 

Speculators held a net-short position, or bets on lower prices, of 159,272 futures contracts in corn, the agency said. That’s down from 187,992 contracts the week prior. 

Money managers were net long on soybeans by 34,793 futures contracts in soybeans, up from 2,626 contracts the previous week. That’s the largest bullish position in beans since June 17, CFTC data show. 

In wheat, hedge funds and other large investment firms were net-short by 107,377 soft-red winter futures, down from 110,883 contracts a week earlier. 

Investors reduced their net-short positions in hard-red winter wheat narrowly to 67,181 futures contracts from 67,792 contracts the week prior, CFTC said in its report. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

3. Snow Forecast for Parts of the Southern Plains

Snow is expected in parts of the southern Plains where hard-red winter wheat is overwintering, according to the National Weather Service. 

Accumulations of an inch or more are possible in the western panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas, and some measurable snow may make it further east, the agency said. 

“Lingering flurries to light snow showers are possible through Thursday morning before drier weather sets in for the weekend and next week,” NWS said. 

In southern Missouri, meanwhile, freezing fog advisories have been issued. 

Visibility is expected to be low and roads will be slick, creating hazardous driving conditions, the agency said.