3 Big Things Today, Dec. 11, 2025

1. Wheat, Corn Futures Rise on Black Sea Tensions

Wheat and corn futures were higher in overnight trading on rising tensions in the Black Sea. 

Ukraine said it disabled a Russian tanker using drones, its third drone strike in the past two weeks. The attack was on the so-called shadow fleet of ships involved in the Russian oil trade. 

The ship was critically damaged, but no injuries were reported, according to media reports. 

Leaders from several countries are set to hold a video conference today to discuss a revised peace plan between Ukraine and Russia. 

Also boosting prices overnight was some technical buying after prices dropped in Wednesday trading. Investors who were short the market may have bought back contracts and closed their positions. 

Wheat was lower yesterday after USDA on Tuesday raised its outlook for global output.

World wheat production in the 2025-2026 marketing year is now seen at 837.81 million metric tons, up from a previous outlook for 828.89 million tons, the agency said in a monthly supply and demand report. 

Production in Argentina is now pegged at 24 million metric tons, up from 22 million a month earlier, and Australian output is seen at 37 million tons, up from the earlier forecast for 36 million tons. 

USDA raised its forecast for production in Canada to 39.96 million metric tons from 37 million tons previously. 

Wheat futures for March delivery rose 4 3/4¢ to $5.34 1/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures added 4 1/2¢ to $5.27 3/4 a bushel. 

Corn futures for March delivery added 3 1/2¢ to $4.47 3/4 a bushel. 

Soybean futures for January delivery gained 2¢ to $10.93 1/4 a bushel. Soy meal was up $2.20 to $303.40 a short ton and soy oil lost 0.26¢ to 50.83¢ a pound. 

2. Ethanol Production Falls From Record High

Ethanol output dropped from a record last week and inventories were effectively unchanged, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. 

Production of the biofuel fell to an average of 1.105 million barrels a day in the week that ended on Dec. 5, the agency said. 

That’s down from a record 1.126 million barrels the previous week and the lowest since Nov. 14. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output averaged 1.046 million barrels a day, down from 1.068 million barrels the week prior, EIA said. 

West Coast output was down by a thousand barrels to an average of 9,000 per day. 

East Coast production was unchanged at 11,000 barrels per day for the third straight week, and Rocky Mountain output was also steady at 11,000 barrels, the agency said. 

The Gulf Coast was the lone gainer for the week, rising to an average of 28,000 barrels per day from 26,000 barrels a week earlier. 

Ethanol inventories in the seven days through Dec. 5 were reported at 22.510 million barrels versus 22.511 million the week prior, EIA said in its report. 

3. Winter Weather Forecast From South Dakota to Ohio

Winter weather advisories have been issued from Montana south and east into southern Ohio, according to National Weather Service maps. 

As much as an inch of snow and an inch of ice are expected in central South Dakota, making surfaces slick, the agency said. 

A couple of counties in northern South Dakota are under an ice storm warning until early evening. 

“Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages,” NWS said. “Plan on slippery road conditions.”

In eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, from 2 to 4 inches of snow are expected today with some isolated areas receiving up to 5 inches, the agency said.