3 Big Things Today, April 14, 2025

1. Wheat Futures Decline in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures were lower in overnight trading amid calls for favorable weather in some growing areas of the world. 

Rain is in some weather models toward the end of the week for parts of the U.S. southern Plains where hard red winter wheat is growing. 

The area has been dry in recent weeks with 55% of Kansas, the biggest producer of winter wheat in the U.S., was suffering from drought conditions in the seven days that ended on April 8. That’s down from 59% the week prior, but up from 25% three months earlier and 29% at the beginning of 2024. 

Oklahoma has also seen drought spread since the start of the year. About 40% of the state is suffering from drought conditions, down from 48% the previous week, but an increase from only 5.5% three months earlier, the monitor said. 

Rainfall last week improved soil moisture for wheat in the Black Sea region, and precipitation in parts of northern Europe is also expected to boost water levels for wheat and rapeseed growth, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar. 

Corn and soybean futures were narrowly lower as grain traders shunned the weakening dollar, which was down more than 0.6% overnight. A weaker greenback tends to make dollar-denominated goods including agricultural products more attractive to overseas buyers. 

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 4¼¢ to $5.51½ a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped 9¢ to $5.59 a bushel. 

Corn futures lost 1½¢ to $4.88¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures for May delivery fell ¾¢ to $10.42 a bushel. Soymeal was down $2.90 to $296.70 a short ton, and soy oil dropped 0.1¢ to 47.25¢ a pound.

2. Speculators Raise Bullish Bets on Corn

Money managers raised their net long positions in corn last week while also becoming more bearish on soybeans, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Investors held a net-131,184 futures contracts in corn in the week that ended on April 8, the agency said in a weekly report. 

That’s up from 128,433 contracts a week earlier and the largest such position since March 11. 

In soybeans, however, speculators raised their net short positions to 27,334 contracts, CFTC said, up from 3,681 contracts the previous week. 

In wheat, hedge funds and other large investment firms held 90,724 contracts in soft red winter futures, down from 100,584 contracts the week prior. 

Investors raised their net shorts in hard red winter wheat to 46,366 futures contracts last week, up from 41,661 contracts a week earlier, the government said in its report. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net short position means more are betting futures will decline.

3. Red flag warnings issues for much of Nebraska

Red flag warnings have been issued for almost the entire state of Nebraska and a few counties in surrounding states, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Winds in central Nebraska will be sustained from 25–35 mph and gust up to 45 mph, the agency said. Relative humidity will fall as low as 15%. 

In eastern Nebraska, and some Iowa counties on the border between the states, winds will gust up to 50 mph this afternoon, NWS said. Humidity will drop to around 15%. 

“A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior,” the agency said. 

Much of South Dakota, meanwhile, will face intense winds this afternoon and evening. 

Winds will range from 25–35 mph and gust up to 45 mph in central South Dakota, NWS said. Driving may be difficult, especially in higher-profile vehicles.